Mal Boyle's weekly "Well, I Declare!" feature.

Well I Declare 29th February 2012

Mal Boyle's weekly "Well, I Declare!" feature.

Mal Boyle's weekly "Well, I Declare!" feature.

Hi everyone, it's Wednesday already! This means it's time for us to share the thoughts of Malcolm Boyle after he has ploughed through the next five days' racecards looking for that snippet of information that could help us find those elusive winners. He's got all the details of 18 meetings spread across the 5 days, so there's plenty to go: let's get on with it!

WEDNESDAY 29/02: 

Bangor:

General stats: Fergal O’Brien saddles two horses at Bangor today, boasting a 67% strike rate at the track via two winners.  Queen Of Mantua (2.20) and Bagsy’s Bridge (4.55) can be given chances accordingly.

2.20: Five-year-olds have secured four of the last five renewals whilst six-year-olds have won the other four races during the last eight years.  Just one favourite has prevailed in the last seven years during the which time, gold medallists have emerged at 33/1--28/1--10/1.  Nicky Henderson has saddled two of the last five winners and the trainer held just one option (Native Beauty) at the penultimate entry stage.

4.25: The last three favourites (from four in total) have obliged, whilst three seven-year-old winners have emerged.

 

Folkestone: 

General stats: Warren Greatrex (7/18), Alan Hill (4/6) and Gary Brown (2/4) all boast decent records at Kent’s lone venue.

3.15: Eight of the nine winners have carried weights of 11-4 or less, whilst five of twelve favourites to date have reached the frame, stats which include two winners.

3.45: Just one favourite has prevailed via eleven renewals, whilst eight of the 10 beaten market leaders failed to even reach the frame.  Seven of the last nine winners have scored at 25/1-20/1-12/1-12/1-11/1-10/1-9/1.

4.45: Eight market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions down the years.  Ten winners scored at odds of 8/1 or less whilst last year’s second placed favourite was attempting to land a four-timer for market leaders.

 

Kempton: 

General stats: Strawberrymystique (7.55) is Marco Botti’s only raider on the card, the trainer’s Kempton LSP figure standing at fifty-nine points at the time of writing.  Marco’s last two runners have won for good measure.

 

Southwell (NH):

General stats: James Reveley has three half decent rides on the card, the pilot boasting a current 35% strike rate at the track. Charlie Mann’s strike rate stands at 32% having saddled twelve of his thirty-eight runners to winning effect during the last five years.

 

THURSDAY 01/03: 

Ludlow: 

General stats: Theatre Diva potentially represents trainer Jackie Du Plessis in the scheduled 4.00 event, the trainer boasting stats of ¾ at the venue.  Barry Geraghty has ridden twelve winners at the track via just thirty opportunities recording a strike rate of 40%. 

Two mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.30: Five-year-olds have secured five of the last eight renewals during which time, three favourites have obliged.  Six of the last seven winners have been returned at odds of 13/2 or less.

Two and a half mile novice chase contest scheduled for 3.00: Seven-year-olds have won all three renewals to date in a race where the favourite has yet to oblige.

Three mile handicap hurdle event scheduled for 3.30: Three of the five favourites have finished in the frame via four renewals during which time, one market leader has prevailed. Three of the four winners thus far have carried a minimum burden of 11-5.

Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 4.00: Eight-year-olds come into the contest on a five-timer, vintage representatives having won six of the last nine contests.  Six favourites have won during the study period whilst the last five gold medallists were returned at odds of 11/2 or less.

Three mile hunter chase contest scheduled for 5.00: We still await the first successful market leader following four renewals which is an unusual scenario in this sector of the sport.

 

Taunton: 

General stats: Robin Dickin’s consistent Roxanne Bruere was Robin’s only possible runner on the card earlier in the week at a track where the trainer has saddled three winners via just eleven runners during the last five years.  Denis Regan rides this track as well as anyone and the jockey has been in particularly brilliant form of late.  On a more general note, Paul Nicholls tends to mop up races when his horses are well fancied. 

Two mile three furlong novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.40: The last nine winners have scored at 6/1 or less, stats which include three winning favourites.  All nine winners carried weights of 11-1 or more.

Class 4 handicap chase scheduled for 3.10: Six-year-olds have won three of the last four contests, with vintage representative having secured six of the last nine renewals.  The biggest priced winner during the study period was an 8/1 chance, whilst three of the last four market leaders have prevailed.

 

Southwell:

General stats: Jimmy Fortune is a rare visitor to Southwell, though his 8/17 stats suggest that you treat his mounts with great respect at the venue. 

 

Kempton:

General stats: The Catenian (6.20) is an interesting each way option given his ‘trap one’ position, notwithstanding that the Hawk Wing gelding sports a visor for the first, hailing from John Brown’s stable which boasts 2/5 stats at Kempton.  For good measure, it’s worth noting that John’s last two runners have scored.  

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FRIDAY 02/03: 

Doncaster: 

General stats: James Ewart (31%) and Tony Carroll (25%) do well with their raiders on Town Moore whilst of the trainer who saddle far more runners, Nicky Henderson is the handler to home in on boasting a 25% strike rate via eighty representatives of late.

Class 3 handicap hurdle event scheduled for 4.15: Five and six-year-olds have equally shared six of the last seven renewals, whilst last years beaten favourite was beaten when attempting a five-timer for market leaders.

 

Newbury: 

General stats: Four of the last nine runners saddled by Tom George have obliged and with the trainer boasting an LSP figure of thirty-three points (20% strike rate), Tom’s runners at the two-day meeting are entitled to plenty of respect.  Bathwick Brave is not the brightest light in David Pipe’s stable but Johnny Farelly was already booked aboard this morning and having ridden three of his twelve mounts to winning effect at Newbury, a win and place investment might produce a profit.

NH novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.20: Five-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 5-4 via the last nine renewals.

Two and three-quarter mile novice handicap chase scheduled for 3.30: Seven and eight-year-olds have equally shared the last four contests, vintage representatives having secured eight renewals between them during the last decade.

Class 4 handicap hurdle contest scheduled for 4.00: No winning favourites have been recorded during the last ten years.

 

Lingfield: 

General stats: Keith Dalgleish has five options at Lingfield in the foreseeable future and with stats of 3/8 at the track, Keith’s runners should be kept on the right side.

 

Wolverhampton: 

General stats: Luke Rowe is a promising young pilot who has ridden two winners at Dunstall Park from seven opportunities, recording an LSP figure of sixteen points into the bargain.  Luke was already jocked aboard Minortransgression (scheduled to contest the 5.20 event) earlier in the week.

 

SATURDAY 03/03: 

Doncaster: 

General stats: Lee Edwards is an underrated pilot in my book as his 3/9 stats on Town Moor confirms in recent times.

Three mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 2.20: Seven of the last eight winners have carried a maximum burden of 11-2.

Three and a quarter-mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.55: Six of the last eight winners have carried weights of 10-10 or less.

Class 2 handicap chase scheduled for 4.25: We still await the first winning favourite following four contests.

Two mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 5.10: Six renewals have slipped by since the last successful market leader was registered. The gold medallists during the period included those returned at 33/1--25/1--16/1--11/1.

 

Kelso: 

General stats: Nicky Henderson held two options on the card earlier in the week and having saddled four of his seven runners at the venue to winning effect in recent times, Nicky’s raiders must be viewed positively.  

Grade 2 novice hurdle event scheduled for 3.35: Three favourites have won via the last eight renewals, though four contests have slipped by since a market leader prevailed.  The seven previous winners had scored at odds of 6/1 or less before last year’s 20/1 gold medallist won on behalf of the layers.

Hunter Chase contest scheduled for 4.45: Three of the four favourites have won thus far, the biggest priced winner being returned at 100/30.

Closing bumper event scheduled for 5.20: Only one favourite has obliged (three years ago) via eight contests.

 

Newbury: 

General stats: I successfully pinpointed the merits of keeping the Nick Williams runners on your side at the last Newbury meeting and repeat the same advice this time around.

‘Greatwood Gold Cup’ scheduled for 3.10: Eight-year-olds have secured five of the last nine renewals whilst Paul Nicholls has saddled four of the last six winners.  Paul was responsible for three of the nineteen penultimate stage entries.

Class 3 handicap hurdle event scheduled for 3.45: Six-year-olds have secured five of the last seven contests, with vintage representatives coming to the party on a hat trick this time around.

Two and a quarter-mile handicap chase scheduled for 4.55: Tom George has saddled three of the last four winners and with the stable in great form just now, Tom’s two potential runners are entitled to plenty of respect.

Alan King has saddled two of the three winners to date in the closing bumper event which is scheduled to be contested at 5.30.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Ned Curtis has struck up a good relationship with Clean Bowled and the combination should be worth following in the scheduled 5.05 event.

 

SUNDAY 04/03: 

Huntingdon: 

General stats: David Evans and John Ferguson boast identical 3/6 stats at the venue whilst producing an aggregate LSP (closely matched) figure of sixteen points. Noel Fehily is a jockey to keep on the right side given his recent new contract, not that Noel has a bad record here already with a 23% strike rate to his name.

Two mile maiden hurdle event scheduled for 2.10: Favourites have won three of the four contests to date, the biggest priced winner being returned at just 9/4 thus far.

Two mile five furlong handicap hurdle scheduled for 3.10: The biggest priced winner via three renewals to date was sent off as a 4/1 chance, whilst two favourites have prevailed.

Three mile handicap chase contest scheduled for 3.40: Although only one favourite has obliged via three renewals, the trend of ‘fancied’ horses winning is extended to this event as the biggest priced winner returned thus far was a 5/1 chance.

Class 4 handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.10: The three winners have carried weights of 11-2 or more.

Two and a half mile maiden hurdle scheduled for 4.40: Four of the six available toteplacepot positions have been secured by horses starting at 10/1 or more, stats which include both (66/1 & 16/1) winners.

All four favourites have won the closing bumper event which was scheduled to be contested at 5.10.

 

Sedgefield:

General stats: Martin Keighley has saddled three winners via just seven runners at Sedgefield and the trainer held two options at the time of writing.  His potential raider Junior Jack is one to note as the horse was also entered at Huntingdon on Sunday.

Two and a half mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.50: Although two races hardly constitute a ‘trend’, nine-year-olds have secured four of the six available toteplacepot positions, stats which include both (10/1 & 8/1) winners.

Closing bumper event scheduled for 5.20: Alan Swinbank saddled the first two winners of this contest before losing ouit via his beaten odds on favourite twelve months ago.  Alan held just one option (Naburn) this time around, though Donald McCain still had four horses declared at the five-day stage.

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