Well I Declare 04/01/12

Well I Declare 4th January 2012

Well I Declare 04/01/12

Well I Declare 04/01/12

The hectic New Year period is now behind us and people are returning to work in a bid to get back to a normal routine.  None more so than our very own Malcolm Boyle, who has been burning the midnight oil going through the upcoming racecards looking for a profitable angle or two.

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These are his findings:



General stats: Richard Killoran has one booked ride at the track on Wednesday which is Theatrelands in the 3.30 event on the card.  Richard’s stats at Huntingdon stand at 10/23 (29%), figures which support his LSP ratio of twenty three points.

There is barely any history relating to the races at Huntingdon today, a comment which also applies to Wednesday’s other three meetings I’m afraid.  It’s that time of year unfortunately!


Southwell (NH):

General stats: Lawney Hill is set to saddle two runners on the Southwell (NH) card on Wednesday and with a strike rate at the course of 35% via figures of 6/17, Lawney’s raiders are worth a second glance. 



General stats: Ian Williams had saddled five of his last eight runners to winning effect at the time of writing and as the trainer boasts stats of 15/60 at Lingfield in recent years, the 8/1 quote I have seen about JJ Leary (his lone representative on the card) catches the eye, especially with Jamie Spencer booked to ride. 



General stats: Richard Hannon has saddled double (96) the number of winners at Kempton than the next best represented trainer on the card.  Richard has declared two runners on the card (Leenavesta 4.30 and Haafhd Handsome 7.00).




General stats: Mattoral held three options this week but if trainer Chris Gordon opts for this venue, readers should take note of the fact that the trainer has saddled two winners from just three runners at the track, boasting an incredible LSP figure of eighty one points into the bargain!


Lingfield (NH):

General stats: Trainers Tim Vaughan and Paul Webber boast identical impressive strike rates of 38% via stats of 3/8.

Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.20: We still await the first winning favourite with the winners returned at 100/1-8/1-4/1 thus far. All three winners have carried weights of 11-5 or less as have eight of the nine horses which have secured toteplacepot positions, whilst just one market leader has finished in the frame.



General stats: Richard Fahey held entries in two races for Kingdom Of Munster, his only potential runner on the card.  Richard has saddled three winners via eleven runners at Sedgefield during the last five years, boasting over eight points of level stake profits.



General stats: Jeremy Noseda’s 29% strike rate (20/59) has been mentioned before, whilst you might like to keep Andrew Reid’s raiders on the right side given his level stake profit at the course of forty nine points.


FRIDAY 06/01:


General stats: The recent beaten Newbury favourite Night Alliance is Richard Newland’s only runner on the card at a venue where the trainer has saddled eleven runners, three of them to winning effect.  Richard’s LSP figure of over five points adds icing on the cake. 



General stats: Jennie Candlish will be hoping that the meeting receives the green light whereby her three potential runners would have to be given a second glance, given her LSP figure of forty four points via stats of 4/15.



General stats: Eugene Stanford has The Happy Hammer entered for races on both Friday and Saturday whereby it’s a case of keeping your eye on the overnight declarations, especially as the trainer has saddled two winners via just seven runners at the course.

Class 6 six furlong handicap scheduled for 3.25: Four-year-olds have won three of the five renewals, whilst five of the six favourites have finished in the frame (three winners).  Four of the five winners have carried a minimum burden of nine stones.

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General stats: Northern Spy is definitely one of the horses of the week to watch out for, given that trainer Simon Dow has saddled half of his ten runners at Wolverhampton to winning effect.




General stats: Note the Friday comment relating to The Happy Hammer, whilst digesting the fact that the six-year old won the scheduled 3.55 race on this card twelve months ago.

One and a quarter mile maiden scheduled for 12.40: Mark Johnston has saddled both winners to date with the trainer holding three entries earlier in the week.

Ten furlong claiming event scheduled for 1.10: Horses carrying a maximum burden of 8-9 have secured all four toteplacepot positions to date via two renewals.

Class 5 seven furlong handicap scheduled for 3.55: Horses carrying 8-13 or more have secured five of the six available win and place positions to date, stats which include both 8/1 and 4/1 gold medallists.



General stats: Richard Guest’s seventy eight points of level stake profits make for great reading via a 22% strike rate.

There is precious little history attached to this meeting.



General stats: Charlie Longsdon has already equalled last season’s total of winners whereby this up and coming (potentially top) trainer is invariably one to watch when contemplating your wagers.  Course and distance winner Qhilimar was Charlie’s only potential runner on the card earlier in the week which makes for interesting reading.

Listed hurdle (mares only) scheduled for 1.00: Seven-year-old returned favourites have won both renewals thus far.

Juvenile hurdle scheduled for 1.35: Favourites have won two of the last three contests, though readers should be made aware of the fact that 66/1 and 50/1 outsiders have won two of the six renewals.

Class 2 handicap chase scheduled for 2.05: Hold Fast was the only Paul Nicholls representative engaged at the five-day stage, the trainer having saddled two of the six winners thus far.  Nicky Henderson was responsible for four of the top six horses in the handicap at the penultimate stage, though Barry Geraghty was already jocked aboard Tanks For That off top weight of 11-12.

Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle scheduled for 2.35: Prospect Wells was the only Potential Paul Nicholls runner at the time of writing, the trainer having secured four of the last seven contests.

Class 2 three mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.10: We still await the first successful favourites following six renewals, the last four of which have been won by horses returned at 28/1-16/1-15/2-7/1.

Class 2 handicap hurdle scheduled for 3.45: Successful favourites have been conspicuous by their absence via the last seven renewals during which time, horses have won at odds of 33/1-25/1-16/1-14/1-6/1-100/30.



General stats: The world and his dog know that all of the runners from the local yard of Paul Nicholls have to be respected but now that ‘the man’ has slipped into a negative LSP position at the venue, I’m homing in on Tim Vaughan’s potential inmates at the time of writing.  Tim boasts a strike rate of 26% via stats of 9/35, with a positive LSP reading of fifteen for good measure. 

Two mile six furlong novice hurdle event scheduled for 1.20: Six-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals, whilst horses carrying weights of 11-4 or more have won six of the last eight contests.

Class 4 novice handicap chase scheduled for 2.20: Both favourites have won to date carrying weights of 10-9 and 10-5.

Two mile five furlong handicap chase scheduled for 2.50: Paul Nicholls (Hold Fast was his only entry at the time of writing) has saddled two of the five winners, the only successful favourites recorded in the contest to date.  All five winners have carried weight of 10-13 or more.




General stats: Rebecca Curtis had two horses entered last week at a venue where the trainer boasts a strike rate of 34% via stats of 14/41.  Throw in a positive LSP figure of ten points and you have reason to search out her runners at the west country venue.

Seventeen furlong maiden hurdle event scheduled for 1.00: Five-year-olds have won both races thus far, securing forecast positions on each occasion.



General stats: Six time course winner La Capriosa was Scott Dixon’s only runner on the card at the five-day stage, with the trainer having saddled three winners from just nine runners at the course to date.  An LSP figure of nineteen points might persuade you to have a save bet on the six-year-old at the very least, if the Kyllachy mare is offered the green light.

Six furlong (Class 6) handicap scheduled for 3.50: Favourites have won both renewals thus far.

Mal Boyle


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8 replies
  1. Alan Bradshaw says:

    Excellant site allways look here first before considering betting 25/1 winner today brilliant well done Thanks Alan

  2. Steve says:

    Brilliant stuff today with Theatrelands winning in the 3.30 as suggested. I got 34.0 on Betfair – lovely stuff! Cheers, Steve.

  3. Gary says:

    Great information, it certainly puts us on the right track for winner finding, please keep up the good work. Gary.

  4. Mal Boyle
    Mal Boyle says:

    This is the way we are going to tear into the layers (professional and amateur) in 2012 guys! Thanks for the plaudits–just doing my job!


  5. Ed says:

    Interesting Stats Matt,

    Keep up the good work, maybe we can a few winners for your stats soon.

    Ed 🙂

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