Well I Declare: 7/3/12

Well I Declare: 7th March 2012

Well I Declare: 7/3/12

Well I Declare: 7/3/12

Hello again, we've just received Mal's latest weekly racing preview featuring everything you need to know about the upcoming fixtures.
So, without further ado, let's take a look at what he's got for us this week.

WEDNESDAY 07/03: 

Catterick: 

General stats: Keith Reveley (16/83 ratio during the last five years) boasts a level profit strike rate of nearly sixty four points at Catterick whereby his four runners at the venue are worth a second glance)

2.20: The last ten winners have scored at odds of 5/1 or less, stats which include five successful favourites.  The last nine winners carried weights of 11-2 or less.

2.50: Nine renewals have slipped by since a winning favourite was recorded though the biggest priced winner in five of the last six contests was returned at 11/2.

3.20: The first two (odds on) favourites obliged before last year's 7/2 market leader could only finished sixth of fourteen.

3.50: Seven of the last nine winners have obliged at 5/1 or less, stats which include four successful market leaders.

4.20: Only one favourite has prevailed in the last nine years during which time, six winners have scored at odds ranging between 10/1 and 33/1.  Five of the last six winners have carried weights of 11-5 or more.

4.50: Just one market leader has scored during the last decade which is a very unusual statistic in Hunter Chase events.  Just two of the last nine favourites have finished in the frame to add insult to injury for toteplacepot enthusiasts who include well fancied horses.

5.20: Four-year-olds have won four of the last five renewals of the finale with vintage representatives coming to the gig on a four-timer on this occasion.  Four favourites have obliged via six renewals.

 

Fontwell: 

General stats: Puffin Billy (5.00) is Oliver Sherwood’s only potential runner at Fontwell this afternoon.  Oliver boasts an LSP figure of over seventy one points via a 23% strike rate at the venue.  

2.00: Three of the four favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (two winners).

2.30: Four of the six market leaders have reached the frame whilst favourites come to the gig on a four-timer this time around.

3.00: Six-year-olds have won four of the seven renewals to date, whilst snaring eight of the available sixteen toteplacepot positions.  All seven favourites have been beaten to date albeit the biggest priced winner of this event was returned at just 13/2.  Four of the seven market leaders finished in the frame this far.

3.30: Seven and eight-year-olds have shared eight of the 10 renewals to date, though just one runner represents the two vintages on this occasion (Rigadin De Beauchene).  Ten of the eleven winners have scored at 9/1 or less (the other contest was secured by a 12/1 chance) whilst four favourites have obliged to date. Six of the eleven jollies have finished in the frame.

5.00: Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 3-2 via five contests during which time, two market leaders have prevailed.

 

Kempton: 

General stats: Royal Etiquette is Lawney Hill’s only runner at Kempton tonight.  Lawney has saddled two of her eight runners at the venue to winning effect to date.

 

Lingfield: 

General stats: South Yorkshire based trainer David Griffiths saddles two runners on this afternoon’s card, David having saddled five winners at the venue via just seventeen representatives.

 

THURSDAY 08/03: 

Carlisle:

General stats: Alan Mactaggart has saddled four of his twelve runners at the venue to winning effect and Royal Mackintosh (scheduled to contest the 4.20 contest) was Alan’s only potential representative all week at the time of writing.

‘Hands and Heels’ event scheduled for 2.10: All four winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-3 whilst one favourite has scored via four renewals.

Two and a half mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.40: Six-year-olds have won five of the last six contests during which time, two market leaders have obliged alongside one joint favourite.  All seven winners have carried weights of 11-2 or more.

Three and a quarter mile handicap chase event scheduled for 4.20: Sue Smith has won three of the last four races in which she was represented and the trainer held two options for the contest at the weekend.  Only one favourite has scored via eight renewals, with the other winners ranging in odds between 7/2 and 25/1.  The last three winners were returned at 25/1--12/1--12/1.

Class 5 two mile handicap chase scheduled for 4.50: Eight-year-olds have secured three of the last four contests whilst two favourites have won via eight contests.  Six of the last seven winners carried a minimum burden of 10-13.

Bumper event scheduled for 5.20: Five-year-olds come to the gig on a hat trick this time around, vintage representatives have secured five of the seven renewals to date.  Just one (joint) favourite has won during the last five years during which time, the other winners scored at 50/1--40/1--13/2--6/1.

 

Wincanton: 

General stats: Red Rock (scheduled to contest the 4.40 event) was Emma Lavelle’s only potential runner on the card, with Emma boasting the best LSP figure (fourteen points) of the represented trainers at the track on Thursday.  

Class 4 two mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 3.00: Twelve of the last thirteen winners carried weights of 11-5 or less, whilst only one favourite has won this event during the last eleven years.  Six market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions though that said, ‘only’ three of the gold medallists were returned in double figures during the study period.

Class 3 novice chase event scheduled for 3.35: All four favourites have finished out of the frame though in all fairness, three of the contests were ‘win only’ events.

Class 4 two mile maiden hurdle scheduled for 5.10: Five favourites have won the scheduled finale during the last decade.  Nine of the twelve market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

 

Southwell:

General stats: David Barron holds two entries on Thursday and with an incredible 120 points of level stake profits at the track in recent years, anything that David saddles at Southwell is worth keeping on the right side, especially given his 24% strike rate.

 

Wolverhampton: 

General stats: With Wolverhampton’s big three day meeting starting on Thursday, it’s as well to point out that Joe Fanning is the jockey to follow at the track in general terms, especially given his sixty six point LSP figure.

 

FRIDAY 09/03: 

Ayr: 

General stats: Donald McCain is setting the standard of late at all venues but his 29% strike rate at Ayr demands attention, especially given his LSP figure of fifteen points.  Ann Hamilton is the other trainer to mention in despatches, as Ann has saddled four of her seven runners at the venue to winning effect.

 

Leicester: 

General stats: Bradley (scheduled to contest the 3.40 event) was Fergal O’Brien’s only runner on the card, the trainer having won with both representatives at Leicester thus far.

 

Sandown: 

General stats: Red Harbour was due to contest the Grand Military Gold Cup earlier in the week, with the relevant Staddon yard having won with two of their three runners at the course.

Grand Military Gold Cup scheduled for 3.30: Favourites have won five of the last nine renewals during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 13/2.

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Class 4 novice hurdle event scheduled for 5.15: Nicky Henderson has saddled four of the last nine winners during which time, the same number of favourites obliged.

 

Wincanton: 

General stats: Note Thursday’s comment about Emma Lavelle who just had Silver Footnote engaged at the venue on Friday at the time of writing.

Two and three quarter mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.00: Five-year-olds have won all three renewals with two favourites finishing in the frame (one winner).

Two and three quarter mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 2.35: The previous nine favourites had all been beaten before last year's 5/4 market leader came to the aid of punters.

Three mile three furlong handicap chase scheduled for 3.10: Eight and nine year-olds have secured six of the seven available toteplacepot positions whilst winning all three events between them thus far.  Charlie Mann is the only trainer to have won this race who had (two) potential runners in the contest this year, Charlie's options at the time of writing were Tarquinius and the inaugural 2009 winner Rebel Melody.

Two and a half mile novice hurdle scheduled for 3.45: Odds on favourites have won all three renewals thus far.

Two mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.20: The last seven winners have carried weights of 11-2 or less, whilst just one favourite has prevailed during the last decade.  It's not been all bad news for punters however, as the last eight contests have produced a biggest priced winner of just 8/1, with five gold medallists have scored at odds of 4/1 or less during the period.

Hunter Chase event scheduled for 4.55: Market leaders have secured four of the seven renewals of this Hunter Chase event, with a biggest priced winner emerging at just 15/2 three years ago. The other six winners scored at odds ranging between 4/5 and 7/2.

Closing bumper scheduled for 5.30: Four-year-olds have secured six of the last seven contests with vintage representatives coming into this year's finale on a five-timer.  Favourites have won two of the nine renewals with eight winners scoring at odds of 6/1 or less. Local trainer Paul Nicholls held two options earlier in the week in a race in which he has saddled two of the last seven winners.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Jonjo O’Neill has entered Dream Catcher in two races on the card and with the trainer having saddled five winners via twenty runners at Dunstall Park, Dream Catcher might be worth an interest if/when Jonjo offers the green light to the nine-year-old.

 

SATURDAY 10/03: 

Ayr: 

General stats: Kim Bailey has won with two of the three runners he has saddled at Ayr in recent times, stats which should also be taken into account for Friday’s meeting.

 

Chepstow: 

General stats: Unusually, Chepstow favourites have a far better record in novice chase events (46%) than in novice hurdle (34%) contests.

 

Sandown:

General stats: Paul Nicholls boasts an LSP figure of nineteen points via a 31% strike rate at Sandown.

Grade 3 novice handicap hurdle finale scheduled for 2.05: Six-year-olds have won seven of the last ten contests, whilst just one favourite prevailed during the study period.

Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.40: Paul Nicholls has secured four of the last seven renewals.

‘Imperial Cup’ scheduled for 3.15: Favourites have prevailed six times during the last decade which is a phenomenal record given the usual competitive nature of the contest.  David Pipe’s lone entry Master Of Arts catches the eye at the time of writing, especially as ‘Team Pipe’ have landed five of the last ten renewals.

Listed mares bumper event scheduled for 3.50: We still await the first successful market leader following eight contests.

Two mile novice chase scheduled for 4.25: The 7/2 winner twelve months ago brought an end to a run of seven successive victories for favourites in this event.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Jeremy Noseda’s horses invariably warrant plenty of respect at the track given his thirty point LSP reading at the venue, notwithstanding a strike rate of 33%.

Listed seven furlong event scheduled for 2.20: Just one (co) favourite has scored via five renewals thus far though the biggest priced winner was returned at 9/1 whereby bookmaker's have not had things going all their own way.  Twenty three four and five-year-olds have tried and failed to win the race to date.

Class 4 seven furlongs handicap event scheduled for 2.55: Mark Johnston saddled last year's 6/1 (following the success of the first two favourites in the race) and Mark was obviously intent on securing back to back winners as he was responsible for four of the eighteen penultimate stage entries.

‘Lincoln Trial’ scheduled for 3.30: The Lincoln Trial emerges from the bleak mid winter to offer readers hope for the forthcoming spring on the eve of the Cheltenham Festival whereby life is not all bad by any means.  Upwards and onwards in positive mode by passing on news that the last five winners have carried weights of 9-2 or more whilst the last double figure winner scored at 16/1 back in 2003.

Class 5 maiden event scheduled for 4.05: Three of the four favourites have finished in the frame to date, stats which include two winners.

Six furlong Class 2 handicap scheduled for 5.15:  Last year's 8/1 winner stopped a sequence of five successive winning favourites of one description or another.

Just one market leader has secured the (fourteen furlong handicap) alongside winners returned at 20/1--16/1--15/2--7/1 in the finale schedule to be contested at 5.45.

 

SUNDAY 11/03: 

Market Rasen:

General stats: Nicky Henderson rules supreme at the Lincolnshire venue via a 34% strike rate.

Conditional jockey‘s handicap hurdle scheduled for 2.20: We still await the first successful favourite to be recorded following four contests, the gold medallists having been returned at odds ranging between 9/2 and 12/1.  All four winners were burdened with a maximum weight of 11-1.

Nineteen furlong novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.50: Last year's 80/1 shook punters following the previous victories (one successful favourite) of horses returned at 1/2--5/2--4/1.

Two and three quarter mile handicap chase scheduled 3.20: The last six winners (three successful market leaders) have been returned at odds of 4/1 or less, as have seven of the eight gold medallists in total.  The last half dozen scorers have been burdened with a minimum weight of 11-2.

Two and a half mile novice chase event scheduled for 3.50: We still await the first successful favourite with the four winners having produced a top priced winner 13/2 thus far.  All four gold medallists have carried weights of 11-1 or more.

Three mile handicap hurdle event scheduled for 4.25: Only one favourite has obliged via the last eight contests whilst the toteplacepot enthusiasts among you might like to learn that the last three market leaders have finished out of the frame.

Seventeen furlong novice hurdle event scheduled for 4.55: Last year's 4/9 favourite came as a welcome relief to punters as three of the previous four winners had scored at 40/1--28/1--13/2.  Five-year-olds have secured eight of the last eleven available toteplacepot positions, stats which include three (28/1--13/2--2/1) winners.

Two and a quarter mile handicap chase event scheduled for 5.25: Eight-year-olds lead the nine-year-olds 3-2 via just the five renewals to date during which time, one (4/7) favourite prevailed.  The last four winners have carried a maximum burden of eleven stones.

 

Warwick: 

General stats: Ferdy Murphy has only saddled six runners at Warwick under the NH code which have produced two winners for the trainer.

Two mile five furlong handicap hurdle scheduled for 2.05: Three favourites have won during the last decade during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 10/1.

Mares novice chase event scheduled for 2.35: Three of the four favourites have prevailed whilst the other gold medallist scored at just 2/1.

Three mile five furlong handicap chase scheduled for 4.05: Just one favourite has obliged via the last eight renewals.

Conditional jockey’s event scheduled for 4.40: Six of the last nine contests have been secured by market leaders.

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