Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 10th December 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 10th December 2014

It was a frustrating day yesterday, as I really expected to be collecting more winnings to add to Monday's effort, but race 1 proved to be a disappointment for us. Moss on the Mill was a rare stinker for the Brennan/George combination and was always in rear and never looked happy.

He did finish, to his credit, but he was the last home of the four finishers, as two had fallen, including our other pick, King of Glory, who was running a good race, travelling well until coming down four from home whilst contesting the lead.

This meant that only our pride was at risk 10 minutes later in Staffordshire, where Lochnagar proved he'd been undervalued off 112, making all to score by a good 9 lengths or so on his handicap debut. Dormouse was back in 4th place, beaten by 14 lengths, as the rest of the field were outpaced from the penultimate hurdle.

It was close, but not close enough for both us and Venetia Williams in our bids for what would have been a nice 14/1 double.

Tuesday's results were as follows:

King of Glory: fell at 11/4 (adv 5/2)
Moss on the Mill: u/p at 2/1 (adv 9/4)
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Lochnagar: won at 3/1 (adv 5/2)
Dormouse: u/p at 11/4 (adv 9/4)

Results to date:
430 winning selections from 1498 = 28.70%
137 winning bets in 389 days = 35.22%

Stakes: 779.50pts
Returns: 866.94pts

P/L : +87.44pts (+11.22% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Wednesday's selected races/runners are as follows...

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3.20 Hexham:

I like Deep Resolve here at 2/1 BOG (Stan James), a course and distance winner last time out on equally heavy ground three weeks ago. he made all that day and was clear of the pack from 2 out, eventually going on to score by 13 lengths at will with the remaining four finishers strung out over a further 73 lengths behind the runner-up. He does have a bit more to find on his handicap debut, but he's best in at the weights here, thanks to a hefty 14lb weight for age allowance.

He's lightly raced and makes just his third run over hurdles after six efforts on the flat/AW. he doesn't lack for ground speed, having won over 7f and narrowly losing over 1m4f and his hurdling has been more than proficient to date. His yard is in good form at present and has a good record here at Hexham, making Deep Resolve the most likely winner here.

I'm not convinced the rest can live with him, if he runs like last time, but as a backup Walser just edges it over Hunters Belt. Walser was 3L ahead of Hunters Belt when they met over C&D three weeks ago (same card as Deep Resolve's win, but different race), when Walser was the runner-up and is now on better terms today and carries just 10-11 here.

Walser might well be 0/17 so far, but he has shown enough of late to suggest he'll win eventually. He has made the frame in four of his five races on heavy ground and has been the runner-up in both C&D runs in the past (also both on heavy). he is, of course, expected to get beat again today, but if Deep Resolve doesn't shine, this could well be Walser's debut victory at 4/1 BOG

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3.40 Kempton:

Spinning Cobblers is on a roll at the moment and completed a 23-day A/W hcp hat-trick with a win over today's 7f trip at Lingfield 18 days ago. That run of wins started here at Kempton over course and distance and despite landing that third win in a row last time out, he's only raised 3lbs here. He's the only course and distance winner in this field, he's drawn well enough in stall 5 of 11 and will look to get out quickly and dominate as usual. He's 2/4 at this level and 3/6 in fields of 8-11 runners and with only being raised the 3lbs, should still be very competitive at 3/1 BOG.

If, however, he has to work too hard to try and lead the pack, this could set the race up for the likes of the 3/1 BOG Seven Lucky Seven, who doesn't possess a blistering turn of pace late on, but does stay on and does his best work in the closing stages. Has been running well without winning over 6f, where that lack of finishing speed is even more highlighted. he has made the frame in 4 of his 6 runs on the A/W this year and has won over today's trip on turf. He runs off the same 63 mark as when runner-up at Wolverhampton over 6f 12 days ago, when he closed to within 2 lengths of the winner, but needed the extra furlong in my opinion.

4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:

Deep Resolve/ Spinning Cobblers @ 10.28/1 (7/4 & 31/10 : Betbright)
Deep Resolve / Seven Lucky Seven @ 11/1 (2/1 & 3/1 : Stan James)
Walser / Spinning Cobblers @ 19/1 (4/1 & 3/1 : Paddy Power & Betfair SB)
Walser / Seven Lucky Seven @ 19/1 (4/1 & 3/1 : Paddy Power & Betfair SB)

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10 replies
  1. chris potterton says:

    How cruel! Especially after Deep Resolve returned at 7/2, forecast in though!

    • Chris Worrall says:

      Yes, Chris.
      Cruel is often the name of the game with DD, as we average around 16 winners every 14 betting days and 5 winning doubles in the same period, leaving us with a few days like today!

      But it’s profitable in the long-term, which is always the aim! 😀

  2. John Polockus says:

    just joined today haven’t had a bet yet as im 8 hours behind the uk but great write up on deep resove well done guys … looking forward to punting into profit ..no more mug punting !!!!

    • Chris Worrall says:

      Thanks for the kind words, John.
      It’s good to have you on board and that kind of write up is what both Matt and myself are keen to deliver on a daily basis.

      Chris

  3. Blokeshead says:

    Sometimes you get lucky….

    I accidentally clicked on E/W when putting the doubles on, and didn’t notice I had to pay twice the normal amount. My punishment for this fairly crass error was a small profit (almost half a point, if I can add up).

    Chris, I have a feeling you’ve been asked this before, but have you (or has anyone else) ever done the research to see what happens if you routinely put these doubles on E/W? I would guess that, with prices so short, it would over time be a great way to turn a profitable venture into a small loss-making venture, but it would be nice to know.

    • Chris Worrall says:

      Stuart,
      Unfortunately many of our winners are indeed shorter than 3/1 and I think you need a winner a day at 11/4 just to break even in an each way double, but don’t forget we do have days with no winners,
      so I don’t really think the E/W double is viable for anything other than churning money over.

      Chris

  4. John Polockus says:

    thanks chris & the rest of the team ..for the first time in a long time with all this amazing information on here I had a good days racing culminating in a $1 tricast that paid me out $139 ..sure is fun being on the winning side for a change ..thanks to all…

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