Double Dutch, 10th December 2015
It really is remarkable how fickle readers of tipping posts are. To the 88 of you who checked in yesterday, thank you and I hope we can bring something to cheer today. To those who have dropped by the wayside, following tipsters is likely to be a persistent downward spiral - all of them have losing runs, and leaving in a downturn of a proven service says much more about the follower than the picker.
In any case, yesterday was a tough day to tip with the racing pretty dreadful. The one horse of the four nominated that I actually fancied won, and perhaps that was apparent in the post. Of course, for recording purposes it was a losing day as the $750,000 spent on Hermitage Bay looks to be worth about $7,500 after a moderate debut effort in what I'd imagine will prove to be a shocking race in time.
Wednesday's results were as follows:
Forceful Appeal: WON at 11/4 (adv 3/1)
Big Time: 2nd at 2/1 (adv 5/2)
Hermitage Bay: 3rd at 11/10 (adv 5/4)
Pinstripe: 6th at 9/2 (adv 5/1)
Results to date:
749 winning selections from 2686 = 27.89%
236 winning bets in 696 days = 33.91%
P/L : +84.6pts (+6.08% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Marlee Massie absolutely scooted up in the mud at the start of the week and, if this doesn't come too soon, he should go in again. Trainer Nick Alexander is in good form, with five winners in the last month, and trip, ground and grade look fine for his improving six-year-old.
The potential springer in the market is Redkalani. Two good bumper runs have been followed by three quiet efforts in novice hurdles. On his last spin, in a handicap hurdle back in March, Keith Reveley's charge ran a decent race in mid-division, only beaten eleven lengths. This softer ground is expected to suit and, if fit after a break, he may give the jolly plenty to think about.
Rock Relief is also interesting but hasn't won for a very long time.
A mares' maiden hurdle, and some of these look destined to be career maidens! Favourite, and the most likely winner in my book too, is Danali, a point to point winner who bagged a bumper first time out. That 10/1 success was backed up by a good third in a Cork NH Flat race, and she takes on hurdles for the first time in public this afternoon. As a point winner, there should be no issues with her jumping.
Snaidhm is no winning machine - she's in a maiden hurdle after all! - but in her thirteen hurdle starts to date she's been in the top four ten times. Beaten less than five lengths in her last two races, most recently in handicap company, the deep ground and moderate opposition give her what might be her best chance yet. I think the jolly will win but, if she doesn't, this lass has to be first in the queue.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...
Marlee Massie / Danali @ 5.19/1 (5/4 & 2/1 : totesport, betfred)
Marlee Massie / Snaidhm @ 10/1 (6/5 & 4/1 : bet365, Boyle)
Redkalani / Danali @ 17.72/1 (11/2 & 15/8 : betbright)
Redkalani / Snaidhm @ 29/1 (5/1 & 4/1 : bet365, betvictor)