Double Dutch, 10th December 2015

Double Dutch, 10th December 2015

It really is remarkable how fickle readers of tipping posts are. To the 88 of you who checked in yesterday, thank you and I hope we can bring something to cheer today. To those who have dropped by the wayside, following tipsters is likely to be a persistent downward spiral - all of them have losing runs, and leaving in a downturn of a proven service says much more about the follower than the picker.

In any case, yesterday was a tough day to tip with the racing pretty dreadful. The one horse of the four nominated that I actually fancied won, and perhaps that was apparent in the post. Of course, for recording purposes it was a losing day as the $750,000 spent on Hermitage Bay looks to be worth about $7,500 after a moderate debut effort in what I'd imagine will prove to be a shocking race in time.

Wednesday's results were as follows:

Forceful Appeal: WON at 11/4 (adv 3/1)
Big Time: 2nd at 2/1 (adv 5/2)
----------------------------------------------------
Hermitage Bay: 3rd at 11/10 (adv 5/4)
Pinstripe: 6th at 9/2 (adv 5/1)

Results to date:
749 winning selections from 2686 = 27.89%
236 winning bets in 696 days = 33.91%

Stakes: 1391.00pts
Returns: 1475.6pts
P/L : +84.6pts (+6.08% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

1.20 Newcastle:

 

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Marlee Massie absolutely scooted up in the mud at the start of the week and, if this doesn't come too soon, he should go in again. Trainer Nick Alexander is in good form, with five winners in the last month, and trip, ground and grade look fine for his improving six-year-old.

The potential springer in the market is Redkalani. Two good bumper runs have been followed by three quiet efforts in novice hurdles. On his last spin, in a handicap hurdle back in March, Keith Reveley's charge ran a decent race in mid-division, only beaten eleven lengths. This softer ground is expected to suit and, if fit after a break, he may give the jolly plenty to think about.

Rock Relief is also interesting but hasn't won for a very long time.

*

2.55 Punchestown:

A mares' maiden hurdle, and some of these look destined to be career maidens! Favourite, and the most likely winner in my book too, is Danali, a point to point winner who bagged a bumper first time out. That 10/1 success was backed up by a good third in a Cork NH Flat race, and she takes on hurdles for the first time in public this afternoon. As a point winner, there should be no issues with her jumping.

Snaidhm is no winning machine - she's in a maiden hurdle after all! - but in her thirteen hurdle starts to date she's been in the top four ten times. Beaten less than five lengths in her last two races, most recently in handicap company, the deep ground and moderate opposition give her what might be her best chance yet. I think the jolly will win but, if she doesn't, this lass has to be first in the queue.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Marlee Massie / Danali @ 5.19/1 (5/4  & 2/1 : totesport, betfred)
Marlee Massie / Snaidhm @ 10/1 (6/5 & 4/1 : bet365, Boyle)
Redkalani / Danali @ 17.72/1 (11/2 & 15/8 : betbright)
Redkalani / Snaidhm @ 29/1 (5/1 & 4/1 : bet365, betvictor)

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13 replies
  1. Kenstancia says:

    Hi, I know you are having a bad patch, but it will turn round. All the hard work you put into th selections must pay off. I am still following each day.
    One thing I have started to do is the reverse forecast for each race and this is showing a reasonable profit for the recent past.
    Good luck,
    Tony Randall

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Tony

      Thanks for your support – as you say, things will turn again. It’s just inevitable variance (bloody frustrating too).

      Good luck with the forecasts too.

      Best,
      Matt

  2. harrybanana says:

    I have to disagree. The Double Dutch tipping is pretty dire and consistently so. Whilst we appreciate that services go through poor periods, to be showing a loss over the year is not the hallmark of a good service especially when the returns are predicated on always getting the optimum price from a large array of bookmakers.

    I know it’s free but so is Newsboy’s Nap and that doesn’t make a profit either.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Jim

      It’s been a difficult year, no mistaking. But we stand by the approach and the fact that 80+ points are on the board is more than Newsboy, or most other free services, will ever provide.

      I strongly refute that it’s “pretty dire and consistently so”. The number of horses that have gone off significantly shorter in recent days, only to run poorly, is surprising. Over the course of the year that should even itself out but, this year, it hasn’t.

      We’ll continue to do our best, and naturally you’re as welcome to follow or not as you are to your opinion.

      Matt

      p.s. if you fancy adding your own pair to the comments each day, you’d be most welcome.

  3. Blokeshead says:

    I’ve just bought a puppy. Already averaging 18,500 steps a day with him (according to my pedometer, nerd that I am) means I have precious little time for much else after work and other (e.g. family) commitments are taken care of. Accordingly, I’ve stopped following more or less everything horse-related for the last couple of months (including Chris’ Statpicks, where I cancelled my subscription only after a great deal of consideration), the only exception being Stat of the Day. I’d go mad before I stopped following that.

    However, on days when I do have time, I still look to see how DD has got on, and when the puppy stops taking so much of my time (e.g. just getting dressed up to take a dog out in the middle of a Swedish winter takes a while – 8-10 times a day at the moment) it will be my first regular port of call after SotD. A year is a long time to be showing a loss, but having followed it from the start I’ll still be playing with someone else’s money. Given that we beat SP all the time, I remain confident of a return over time.

    And if all else fails, I’ll console myself with the fact that the 50% of BOGs bookies who will still accept my business will think I’m a mug punter if I consistently lose money on doubles. Maybe they’ll let my SotD winnings continue for a while longer.

  4. acranea says:

    I take your point Matt but I think it depends when you started.Double Dutch reached its profit peak in July.If you’d joined then you’d be looking at having lost 50 odd points by now 5 months later.I don’t think many people would be inclined to stick with it after that.You can tell them all you like about how great things were for the previous 12 months but nobody would care.

    To be honest it doesn’t really bother me but I can see how it would others.It all depends what you’re looking for.Personally I keep double dutch tips seperate from my other betting & use small amounts.If you have a winning week I use the money to take the Mrs out for a meal on Saturday.Losing weeks & its a night in 🙂 This started off as a sneaky method to stop her moaning about me betting (as she seems to have forgotten the 2 holidays my punting has paid for in the last 4 years!!) It worked nicely over the spring & summer but I’m being moaned at pretty much constantly these days so you & Chris had best get your fingers out or she’ll be citing you in the divorce papers 😀

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      That’s all valid comment, Brian, but the dropoff in reader numbers has been in the past month or so. In any case, we’ll continue doing what we’re doing and we’ll hit the extended winning run which is long overdue. DD is by its nature streaky, but this past few months has been exceptional(ly disappointing).

      Best,
      Matt

      p.s. fingers well and truly out!

  5. acranea says:

    Well if its all been in a month thats different.People who bomb out of a service after a bad month don’t deserve the time of day & should probably not be gambling in the first place.

  6. harrybanana says:

    As it goes “80+ points on the board” is sophistry. Those 80+ points are entirely based on pre-2015 results, with the 2015 results showing a loss – FACT! To follow a service that didn’t make a profit over a whole year would test the patience of Job let alone Joe Punter.

    A few years ago I developed a methodology which allowed me to slaughter the bookmakers for three years. I managed to get myself barred from virtually every bookmaker in Christendom (several times under various nommes de guerre) but then the market changed and I spent fifteen months barely breaking even…so I stopped using that methodology. My point, of course, is, has there been a sea change in the marketplace that requires the selection process to be re-examined? I dunno…I’ll leave that one with you.

    I’m going to refuse you post scriptum “if you can do any better…” offer as I’m a poor judge of horse flesh but a wiz at the mathematics of pre-race trading. So now I languish on Betfair nicking a few quid off the naïve and gullible.

    As we move towards celebrating the birth of the baby Jesus and the Yuletide festivities let me wish you all the best for next year. Personally, I’m hanging up my Betting Boots, going on the lash and coming back blurry-eyed but confident in the New Year!

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      🙂 Matt ‘likes’ this

      ps nowt wrong with the selection methodology, just the results currently.

  7. bigvern63 says:

    Hi Matt

    As you know form past posts, a massive fan of the site and you have steered me towards the most profitable punting period of my life, so I am not going to get too upset about a poor run on DD, which I keep to a minimum stake bet each day.

    The sole reason I don’t visit DD every day is that I tend to place my bets the night before due to work commitments and will often not get the chance to have a look at DD (or simply forget) the following day. This is not a request for a post the night before, although I wouldn’t complain if this was the case!!

    Anyway, keep up the good work, Merry Christmas when the holidays come and here’s to a successful punting year in 2016, all thanks to Geegeez.

    Cheers, Chris

  8. lickybits says:

    no-one will be moaning when we see a 4-5 day consecutive winning DD, i’m keeping the faith at least for a while longer..

    just a point, with the heavy and soft going at so many meeting lately, i’m seeing a lot of big price winners, just look at taunton today, maybe when the ground gets better we’ll start seeing better results, just a thought

  9. Iain C says:

    Hi Matt

    Not sure what people expect of Geegeez, I view it as more than just a tipping service. SoD and DD are interesting component parts but surely half the fun is interpreting the form yourself to try and get one over on the bookies. In the time I have been a member I have found the racecards, stats and reports invaluable in helping form my opinion. As far as the tipping services go, SoD is clearly identified as a specific way of identifying winners. I follow Chris’s tips but will always back my own selection as an alternative. As far as DD is concerned, I have spent the best part of 30 years getting one half of a double up so gave up on multiples a long time ago. I do however back the DD selections individually along with a small stake reverse forecast which has certainly been worthwhile. I also keep a note of SoD unlucky losers and back them next time up, Cyclops being the latest winner, just waiting for Zero Visibility to come out again !! I am also a big fan of your in depth big race previews which will often reinforce my own view.

    In summary, for around £5 a week I think Geegeez offers outstanding value – keep up the good work !!

    Iain

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