Double Dutch, 10th February 2014
It was, as expected, tight between Tidal Bay and First Lieutenant in the Lexus yesterday with just half a length separating the two. Unfortunately for us and many others, nobody had really given Last Instalment a second thought, yet the 8/1 shot virtually made all and pretty much hacked up by almost nine lengths!
That rendered our earlier 9/4 success with Vibrato Valtat irrelevant, I'm afraid, although we should note that he won comfortably in decent enough company and could be one to watch. That aside, we still lost our 2pts staked!
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Vibrato Valtat: won at 7/5 (adv 9/4)
Chocala: u/p at 2/1 (adv 13/8)
First Lieutenant: 3rd at 5/4 (adv 5/2)
Tidal Bay: 2nd at 5/2 (adv 3/1)
Results to date:
145 winning selections from 511 = 28.38%
48 winning doubles in 136 days = 36.02%
P/L : +27.05pts (+10.09% ROI)
The profit levels are still looking healthy, but I'll be looking to top them up some more today, despite it looking pretty dire fayre!
There's little to separate Real Milan and Union Jack D'ycy here in my opinion and the bookies seem to agree, for they can't quite who is the favourite for this one. They both act well on heavy ground and Union Jack D'ycy is probably my marginal pick here, but it could and should be tight. This one has a record of 4311 on heavy ground and was a triple chase winner in France before joining Venetia Williams whose chasers tend to go well here. This one is currently available at 3/1 BOG with Stan James.
Real Milan was impressive enough when chasing home the very well treated Rose of the Moon last time out and with only a 2lb drop in the weights despite that effort, looks set to be a major player here too. He stays all day long, he's 1411 on heavy ground and his yard are 5/9 with chasers on this track. All of which makes him a very good candidate at the 11/4 BOG currently on show at BetVictor.
James Tate has a good record here at Wolverhampton and sends out Secret Suspect as his sole runner today. This one broke her duck last time out over 7f at this very track and they way she stayed on towards the finish suggested that the step up in trip today could play to her strengths. She beat Excellent Royale by three parts of a length last time and ER then went on to score by 2.25 lengths next time out, which means a follow up off a reasonable mark of 70 shouldn't be beyond her, which probably explains the 7/4 BOG odds.
However, I have a slight preference for the 5/2 shot Filament of Gold. Joe Fanning is in the saddle for Mark Johnston here and the pair are 9/13 together at Wolves this year! This horse is better than his 5th place at Kempton looks on paper. He was only beaten by 3.5 lengths that day and it was a far better quality contest than today's race.
He has also been dropped 2lbs since that run and will come here fresh from a break of almost 4 months. We should also note that Mark Johnston's horses tend to perform best when returning from a break of 2 to 6 months, which makes his current odds of 5/2 BOG look very appealing.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Union Jack D'ycy / Secret Suspect @ 10/1 (3/1 & 7/4 : Stan James)
Union Jack D'ycy / Filament of Gold @ 13/1 (3/1 & 5/2 : Stan James)
Real Milan / Secret Suspect @ 9.31/1 (11/4 & 7/4 : BetVictor)
Real Milan / Filament of Gold @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : BetVictor)