Double Dutch, 10th March 2015
What I've found in the time I've been supplying selections for Double Dutch (and Stat of the Day, for that matter) is that there's no point panicking about a bad run, as fortunes will always turn for those patient enough to see it out.
Last week wasn't particularly good, but in addition to a hit every 3 days or so on average, there are the occasional full house days like yesterday which are most pleasing of all.
In short: 4 horses in 2 races, 2 winners, 2 runners-up and a nice 15.88/1 double with the added bonus of two exactas (£8.30 & £5.40) and an exacta double (at 43.8/1) for those playing the exotics.
Monday's results were as follows:
Midnight Chorister : WON at 3/1 (adv 7/2)
Rear Admiral : 2nd at 13/8 (adv 13/8)
The exacta was worth 8.3/1 here
Noble Friend : WON at 5/4 (adv 11/4)
Sportsreport : 2nd at 7/2 (adv 15/8)
The exacta was worth 5.4/1 here
Results to date:
510 winning selections from 1787 = 28.54%
160 winning bets in 463 days = 34.56%
P/L : +102.84pts (+11.11% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Cheltenham Day 1 is now upon us, but I'm off to the A/W for the following...
Street Force failed to even make the frame in any of his 10 starts for Clive Brittain, but has looked a different horse since a switch to the Mick Appleby yard. He was pretty well beaten (9th of 12, 17.5 lengths) on his yard debut over a mile, but off the back of a 229 day absence from the track. He was dropped down to 6f, but up a grade to C4 and sent back out just a week later, where he was a creditable 3rd place.
Then just five days later, he dropped back to Class 5, but back up to 7 furlongs and this seemed to do the trick as he was a 12 lengths winner here on this track. he's been able to grab some rest over the past 30 days and should be ready to go again. His yard aren't quite in the same red hot form as they were a month ago, but anything like his last run should be enough for Street Force to take this at 15/8 BOG.
As his alternative, I'm going a little more left field and longer in the market, with the suggestion that Showtime Star might be over priced at 7/1 BOG here. He has won three times and been a runner-up once in his last five starts, a sequence that started in the last of his seven turf outings for Alan Swinbank before a switch to A/W racing with Gay Kelleway.
He's 1214 since the switch with all four runs coming here at Southwell and 121 over course and distance (5f was too sharp for him) and his C&D defeat was by just half a length behind the re-opposing Abi Scarlet who he now meets on much better terms. Street Force is the class act here, but if he fails to shine, then Showtime Star could be the best placed to capitalise and I think I might also back him as an E/W single.
Le Deluge runs here without a penalty despite winning here quite comfortably just five days ago on his first ever outing on this track. That was an apprentices race and doesn't attract a penalty and the way he won suggests that today's step back to 1m4f won't be an issue, having already shown he likes the surface. He has one win and one runner-up finish from two cracks at today's trip, so that shouldn't be undoing either as he attempts to double up at 9/4 BOG.
This is, however, a stronger contest than last week's race and there are a couple here that might apply a bit more early pressure than Le Deluge faced last time out. One such horse is Tacticus, who is an interesting entry here today. He makes the switch to Fibresand after finishing third in both of his efforts on Polytrack and is a very rare Cecil runner here at Southwell.
Henry Cecil only sent 13 runners here between 2006 and his passing in 2013 and Lady Cecil has had just one runner here, way back in August of 2013, when Blighty very comfortably won a maiden at 1/7! And if Tacticus takes to this surface, he could well take the Lady's record here to 2 from 2, as he was only narrowly (head and 0.5 lengths) beaten over this trip at Lingfield last time out, despite not having ran for some 226 days.
He's entitled to come for having had the run and whilst he's new to this track, his jockey Martin Harley certainly knows his way around these parts, having a 14/68 (20.6% SR) record in handicaps here over the last 4 yrs and he'll be looking to kick start his 2015 programme with a 7/2 BOG winner on Tacticus here.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Street Force / Le Deluge @ 8.34/1 (15/8 & 9/4 : SkyBet)
Street Force / Tacticus @ 11.94/1 (15/8 & 7/2 : Bet365)
Showtime Star / Le Deluge @ 25/1 (7/1 & 9/4 : Bet365, Paddy Power & SkyBet)
Showtime Star / Tacticus @ 35/1 (7/1 & 7/2 : Bet365)