Double Dutch, 10th November 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 10th November 2014

We took the brave man's route on Saturday, and were handsomely rewarded. Not only did the double cop, but it was the longer priced selection in both races and, glazing the gateau, both skidded in the market like greased up speed skaters!

The bottom line was a very healthy 44.5/1 double which, for our half point bet - two points staked - amounted to a 22.75 unit return for a 20.75 unit profit. Sick!!! (as the Hackney kids say)

That puts us back above 60 points profit as we publish the 365th Double Dutch. A year's worth of days and 61.42 units the minimum guaranteed profit position. And this from a completely free service. 🙂

Saturday's results were as follow

Samtown: won at 6/1 (adv 4/1)
The Last Samuri: 2nd at 2/1 (adv 10/3) 
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Rockawango: won at 11/2 (adv 4/1)
Swift Arrow: 6th at 3/1 (adv 11/4)

Results to date:
402 winning selections from 1399 = 28.73%
129 winning bets in 364 days = 35.44%

Stakes: 727.50pts
Returns: 790.92pts

P/L : +63.42pts (+8.72% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

A typically trappy Monday, where I'm looking for a quickfire double just after 2pm.

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2.05 Southwell:

A claiming hurdle and not a very good one at that. But it needs a winner, and the two most likely candidates on that score are Lamps and Debt To Society.

Lamps needed the run first time out this season, and may also have not enjoyed going chasing. But at the end of last term he was competitive in Class 3 handicaps before winning a seller and a claimer to round out the season. It has to be a slight worry that a fairly talented horse who is still only seven is being pitched at claiming races, and that's why it's nice to have a second option in case he doesn't go forward today.

Debt To Society is that second option, and he's a regular in these races. He is certain to stay, highly likely to run his race (as form of 1214213 illustrates), and is not too harshly treated at the weights. The likes of Gud Day (poorly in at the weights) and especially Leath Acra Mor (alarming class drop) could also get involved, but there are reasons for opposing them.

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2.15 Kempton:

A sticky looking nursery, but one with a fairly strong favourite and a horse reeling back to favoured conditions. Oriental Splendour is the jolly, and he had run three nice races in maidens before a staying on third over a furlong shorter on his handicap bow. This six furlong strip should be optimal, and Roger Charlton's colt should be able to track the pace and pounce if he's good enough.

If he's not good enough, The Dapper Tapper may step into the breach. Eve Johnson Houghton's lad has had seven runs but remains unexposed on the all weather. He's had just two starts on such a surface with his sole distance effort resulting in a win. That was at Lingfield, and it remains to be seen how he fares going the other way on a different type of poly.

Still, trainer Johnson Houghton and jockey John Fahy have a great record when combining at Kempton: ten wins from 50 starts for a profit of 23.44 points. Drawn in three, and a pace presser, there ought to be no excuses for TDT today.

4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:

Lamps / Oriental Splendour - 10.387/1 (9/4 & 5/2 Boylesports)
Lamps / The Dapper Tapper - 27/1 (5/2 & 7/1 Ladbrokes)
Debt To Society / Oriental Splendour - 14.75/1 (7/2 & 5/2 Boylesports)
Debt To Society / The Dapper Tapper - 31/1 (3/1 & 7/1 Ladbrokes)

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