Double Dutch, 10th September 2013
No near misses, no Sod's Law, no excuses.
Yesterday's picks simply weren't good enough and I hold my hands up. Monday's racing was absolutely dire and I couldn't even find the best of a bad bunch. Yes, my backup pick in race 1 (Odin) managed to come second after being headed on the run-in, but the main selection, Tiny Tenor was 100 lengths further back (I wish I was joking!).
Race 2 took us from bad to worse, as my two picks could only finish in 3rd & 4th places. If I was to grasp at straws and look for some positives from the race, I'd say that at least both picks finished ahead of a favourite I really didn't fancy and the two horses ahead of mine were unlikely winners at 25/1 and 10/1 respectively.
The reality of yesterday, though, is that it wasn't good enough.
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Tiny Tenor : unplaced
Odin : 2nd
Outrageous Request : unplaced
Endeavor : unplaced
Trial to date:
3 winning selections from 18 = 16.66%
0 winning doubles in 5 days
P/L : -7.90pts (-83.16% ROI)
So although I've been dumped on my backside so far, racing is a 7 days-a-week game and always give you an instant shot at redemption. Hopefully my road to recovery comes from today's selections starting with the...
Discay is of interest to me here, as he has taken well to the recent step up in trip to a mile and a half with finishes of 131 in the last month at this distance. He comes here on top of his game and even with a 6lb penalty looks to have a decent chance at odds of around 11/4 .
The main threat is likely to come from fairly warm favourite Nautilus from the in-form Gosden yard. The yard have won 25% of their races in the last couple of months, including The Fugue's impressive display in beating Al Kazeem et al on Saturday evening.
Nautilus was second last time out on his first step up to this trip and it is thought that he set off for home a little too soon and ran out of steam late on, resulting in him getting caught late on. William Buick is back on board today, which is a positive sign to me that the timing of his run will be improved, giving him an excellent chance of taking this at 13/8.
Bondi Beach Boy has won seven of his ten races this season including 4 wins from 4 over course and distance. The handicapper keeps raising his mark, but this one still seems on an upward trajectory and based on the manner of his last victory three weeks ago, I wouldn't be surprised if we had a 3/1 winner on our hands here.
I expect the main challenge to come the consistent 4 yr old filly Avon Breeze, who offers a very realistic alternative at 7/2. She was 3rd at Ripon a little over 3 weeks ago in the William Silver Trophy, a far better race than this one today. It turns out that she went with the "wrong" group that day, but beat all those around her. It's a far smaller field here today, so it's unlikely a choice would have to be made.
She had two of today's rivals, Singeur and Head Space around 3 lengths behind her that day and she should maintain her superiority here off the same mark today.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Discay / Bondi Beach Boy @ 15.00 with Bet365
Discay / Avon Breeze @ 16.88 with either BetVictor or Bet365
Nautilus / Bondi Beach Boy @ 10.48 with Bet365
Nautilus / Avon Breeze @ 11.79 with Bet365, BetVictor or William Hill