Double Dutch, 11th December 2015
No joy for Matt on the last day of his stint in the DD hotseat and whilst DD has come to mean Daily Disappointment of late, rest assured that both Matt and myself are working hard to get this right and eventually begin to recoup recent losses.
As it was yesterday, Snaidhm seemed to run out of steam once caught at the last over at Punchestown and although he tried his level best to rally, went down by just over three lengths.
And that margin of defeat was what separated us from a 10/1 return on the day after Marlee Massie had already won more comfortably than three parts of a length might sound.
Thursday's results were as follows:
Marlee Massie : WON at Evs (adv 5/4)
Redkalani : 5th at 5/1 (adv 11/2)
Snaidhm : 2nd at 3/1 (adv 4/1)
Danali : 17th at 2/1 (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
750 winning selections from 2690 = 27.88%
236 winning bets in 697 days = 33.86%
P/L : +82.6pts (+5.93% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Fletchers Flyer (7/2 BOG) was turned over at 8/11 last time out, but in his defence, that was not only his chasing debut, but also his first run for 207 days. He jumped well enough and was only beaten by 1.25 lengths and really should be expected to come on for the experience. Jumping shouldn' be an issue for a former PTP winner on soft/heavy ground and he ran to a really good level in both bumpers and hurdle races, narrowly missing out by half a length on a Gr2 success at Haydock earlier this year, so there's real quality there.
In opposition, I'm going with Vicente (6/1 BOG), who not only represaents Paul Nicholls (who has won this race on four of the last sseven runnings), but seems to have an ideal profile for the encounter. He's in great form (1131 this year, all over fences) and his stats regarding today's class, trip, field size, days since run are all positive. he has finished 131 in three runs here at Cheltenham, so he certainly "gets" this course and looks a decent value proposition.
I suppose the obvious starting point is Abidjan (5/2 BOG) who comes here seeking a four timer in what will only be his sixth race over hurdles, suchg has been his progression. Paul Nicholls does really well with his handicap hurdle debutants and the booking of Harry Cobden to take 7lbs off is both interesting and positive to me, as an effective mark of 128 might well be below what this horse is capable of here. This is tougher than each of his last threee winnig reuns, but the fact he';s won so easily by a combined 28 lengths in those races suggests there's more to come.
The one I fancy to cause him most of a problem is the lightly raced (for an 8yr old certainly) Red Devil Boys, who comes here with a 2 from 2 record over hurdles, both over today's course and distance, but 35 months apart! He won here just after Christmas 2012 on soft ground on his hurdles debut and was then off the track for almost two years before returning here to Doncaster in a novice chase in which he was brought down after the last fence.
Two more uninspiring efforts over fence in the next two months followed before he went back in the shed for another 292 days ahead of his reappearance for a second course and distance win a fortnight ago. Track, trip and hurdles clearly suit him and he could well go in again at 5/1 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...
Fletchers Flyer / Abidjan @ 14.75/1 (7/2 & 5/2 : Boylesports, BetVictor & Hills)
Fletchers Flyer / Red Devil Boys @ 26/1 (7/2 & 5/1 : Stan James, BetVictor & Hills)
Vicente / Abidjan @ 23.50/1 (6/1 & 5/2 : generally)
Vicente / Red Devil Boys @ 41/1 (6/1 & 5/1 : generally)