Double Dutch, 11th January 2016
Winners at 7/4 and 2/1 (SP 11/8!) hardly set the pulses racing, but that's what we got on Saturday and although a double at 7.25/1 doesn't make much inroad into recent losses, it does at least break the cycle of near misses we were enduring.
Saturday's results were as follows:
Aleator : WON at 7/4 (adv 7/4)
Modernism : 4th at 3/1 (adv 11/4)
Adrien du Pont : WON at 11/8 (adv 2/1)
Coo Star Sivola : 3rd at 3/1 (adv 10/3)
Results to date:
777 winning selections from 2782 = 27.93%
241 winning bets in 720 days = 33.47%
P/L : +70.17pts (+4.88% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Despite missing the break last time out, La Manga showed a considerable improvement for the step into handicap company for the first time at Wolverhampton over 7f last Friday. That's not the ideal kind of race in which to concede ground, but she made decent progress throught the contest and was staying on strongly when the line came too soon for her. She was eventually second there, beaten by less than two lengths and shaping well late on.
The way she closed the race out last week suggests the extra furlong will help and she should come on for the experience of that handicap debut. She runs off the same mark again today, but has a 5lb claimer on board which could make all the difference, especially as her trainer is one of the more adept at using these jockeys. A win for La Manga today therefore wouldn't be too much of a surprise at 3/1 BOG.
Fable of Arachne, however, will attempt to use her superior experience to the good here to deny that victory and she's an interesting one stepping up in trip today. Normally seen over 6f, she has raced over 7f on her last two outings and now steps up again. She's in decent enough nick with two wins and a runner-up finish from her last six races, including a 7f success.
Stuart Williams' horses tend to go well in A/W handicaps and his yard is in really good form at present and with Fable of Arachne going off the same mark as her last outing, she's priced at 5/1 BOG to fare better than the 1 length defeat she suffered last time out.
Tijuca ran really well in defeat last time out and was probably a little unlucky to go down by a neck here over course and distance a week ago. She was unusually slow out of the stalls and missed the break. She then had to play catchup and when push came to shove late on, her path was blocked and she had to check and switch out.
Cahar Fad was 1.75 lengths further back in 4th place last Monday, but he reappeared to win over course and distance on Friday, suggesting that Tijuca has every chance of doing the same off the same mark as last week at a price around 9/4 BOG.
Her main rival here is likely to be the 5/2 BOG Roman De Brut, who comes here off the back off a quartet of excellent runs over course and distance for new trainer Ronald Thompson.
The first of those four outings was two months ago when third returning from an absence of 399 days and since then he has finished 121 in his three races all over this track and trip. Roman De Brut is clearly happy in these conditions and despite a 6lb rise, this improver should go well again today.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...
La Manga / Tijuca @ 13/1 (3/1 & 5/2 : Betfair SB)
La Manga / Roman De Brut @ 13/1 (3/1 & 5/2 : Ladbrokes, BetVictor & Stan James)
Fable of Arachne / Tijuca @ 18.5/1 (5/1 & 9/4 : Bet365, Ladbrokes & BetVictor)
Fable of Arachne /Roman De Brut @ 20/1 (5/1 & 5/2 : Bet365, Ladbrokes & BetVictor)