Double Dutch, 11th October 2014
We're absolutely nothing here at Geegeez, if we can't be open and honest with our readers, so in that spirit, I have to hold my hands up and admit that I dropped the ball yesterday!
I made a massive error of judgment and let my own personal thoughts/hopes affect my decision making process and it meant we had another losing day.
Quite simply, I'd got my two races and I'd done the write-up for the 4.50 Carlisle (where Robins Command won again and at a nice price) and was about to advise taking the top two in the market in a Listed race at Dundalk (7.10pm), when I spotted Taquin Du Seuil reappearing at Newton Abbot and was mentally sidetracked, due to my liking of the horse.
Of course, that race at Newton Abbot was far too competitive and should have been avoided like the plague and Taquin could only manage 3rd place with my other selection beaten by three lengths into second. It goes without saying that the second favourite won at Dundalk and a 14/1 double was missed.
Friday's results were as follows:
Colour Squadron: 2nd at 13/8 (adv 9/4)
Taquin du Seuil: 3rd at 7/2 (adv 9/4)
Robins Command: won at 4/1 (adv 100/30)
Final Assault: 3rd at 9/4 (adv 9/4)
Results to date:
370 winning selections from 1311 = 28.22%
119 winning bets in 341 days = 34.90%
P/L : +47.81pts (+7.02% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I've had several technical difficutlies this morning, that I won't bore you with, but hopefully these will have been worth waiting for, after I've avoided going with the 5.05 Newmarket where even my current form would get the right two horses!
You could make a case for several of these here, but the horse in form is Chesil Beach, who has progressed really nicely in handicap company since landing a seller at Lingfield back in June. 8 handicap runs and a form line reading 65332111 put her on top of her game coming here today chasing a 4-timer. She's up 7lbs, but the manner of her last two wins suggests this shouldn't inconvenience her too much.
The trip shouldn't be an issue with wins at 12f, 17.5f and 2 miles, whilst she has also won four of five starts in small fields of 7 runners or less. I'd be surprised if she's involved at the finish and could be a nice payout at 5/2 BOG.
I felt that the best idea of a backup plan would be to go with Swivel at 11/2 BOG, as he offers far more value than Altaayil who always seems to find one (or more!) just a little too good for him (82222) and was beaten in a maiden three grades lower last time out.
Swivel, however, comes here off the back of a win at Haydock over today's trip and at this Class 2 standard and this contest doesn't look quite as competitive as that Haydock encounter. He doesn't always produce the goods in consecutive outings, which is possibly a reason behind his longer odds, but if he does produce anything like that last effort, we could have an interesting battle late on with Chesil Beach.
Three of the seven expected to run here have already made their debuts (it was 5 from 9, before 2 non-runners) with four starting for the first time. I'm going to split the race into those two groupings and take one from each set.
Of those with a run (or more than one!), the 2/1 BOG favourite Illogical clearly sets the standard after showing nice progression in three maidens to date. She has finished 432 in those races and was only beaten by three parts of a length last time out (Haydock, two weeks ago). Trainer Ed Dunlop now switches her from the turf to a first run on the A/W, a tactic that has served him well in the past and one I think will work again today.
Of the newcomers, I like the look of Magical Effect who can currently be backed at 7/2 BOG. This horse was the 180,000 Guineas first foal out of Purple Glow, who despite being lightly raced (just 7 runs) was a winner over today's 6f trip before suffering a narrow (beaten by a neck) defeat in Listed class and then finished 6th of 18 in a Group 2 contest at Ascot.
He's by New Approach (5/8 at group 1 level and 5/5 over 7f, so speed should be present) who has produced several winners in A/W sprints and Magical Effect's trainer Charlie Appleby has an impressive 21% strike rate with two year olds.
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
Chesil Beach / Illogical @ 9.50/1 (5/2 & 2/1 : SkyBet)
Chesil Beach / Magical Effect @ 14.75/1 (5/2 & 7/2 : Betfair Sportsbook)
Swivel / Illogical @ 18.50/1 (11/2 & 2/1 : Stan James)
Swivel / Magical Effect @ 28.25/1 (11/2 & 7/2: Stan James)