Double Dutch, 12th August 2014
Yesterday epitomised what Double Dutch is all about really. I try to find a couple of races where i can narrow the field now to just two or three fancies (preferably two!) and we back them both in crossed doubles.
When our favoured runners, both come in, we usually make a small profit that will cover a couple of days' stakes and on other (rarer) occasions, we get a bigger payout, thanks to the insurance of the second runner.
And so it proved yesterday. After Jay Kay had won the first race, our attention turned to Thirsk where Sheriff of Nawton looked a tough nut to crack, but he was very disappointing trailing him a poor last of six runners. Cue the insurance horse, Strictly Glitz, nominated at 6/1 BOG, who defied the odds to stay on well and win by a length and a half for a very satisfying near-22/1 double on the day.
Monday's results were as follows:
Jay Kay: won at 2/1 (adv 9/4)
Ivy Port: u/p at 10/3 (adv 11/4)
Strictly Glitz: won at 9/2 (adv 6/1)
Sheriff of Nawton: u/p at 2/1 (adv 7/4)
Results to date:
317 winning selections from 1111 = 28.53%
105 winning bets in 290 days = 36.21%
P/L : +73.52pts (+12.63% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I'm now hoping to keep the ball rolling with these two races from Tuesday's cards...
David Nicholls runners tend to go well here at Carlisle and that can be said about his entry, Rasselas today. He has won both of his starts at the Cumbrian track this year, winning over a mile in June, before landing a course and distance victory here just eight days ago. Neither the trip nor the going should be a concern here today, so as long as this race isn't too soon after last week's exertions, he stands a good chance of going in again at 11/4 BOG.
On past form, Greeleys Love would have been high on the list as alternate picks, but he has been in absolutely dreadful form of late and offers no value at all to me at 11/4 (watch him hose up now!). This leaves us with a bit of a quandary and the need for a little leap of faith with The Osteopath.
He's at the wrong end of his career now at 11 and isn't particularly well treated at the weights either, whilst I'm happy to ignore a poor run at Pontefract last time out, as he always seems to fare badly there.
He has run well in handicap company this season and stamina won't be an issue as highlighted when he finished 2nd of 18 in a heavy slog over a mile at Thirsk just three starts ago. This drop into claiming company might just be what he needs to spark a swansong to a long racing career and although there's little room for sentiment in sport, I doubt many would begrudge The Osteopath one more win at 7/2 BOG.
Appyjack won last Tuesday at Ffos Las and the form from that race looks to have been well franked in just a week. The 3rd, 5th & 7th placed horses from that race were 2.25l, 10.5l and 14l behind Appyjack and all three have gone on to win in the last few days, including Jay Kay who was a winner for us yesterday after finishing third in that Ffos Las race.
Appyjack will relish the cut in the ground again here today and with a better draw than last time out, can defy a 6lb penalty over today's longer trip and he looks the most likely here at 9/4 BOG.
There are question marks about virtually all of his rivals here today and my tentative backup plan is going to be Lil Sophella, whose sole win from 20 starts to date came over 7f last September. She has been gradually stepping up in trip and running consistently well, despite not winning.
Overall, she has a win and eight other top three finishes from her last 12 outings, she has run well on soft ground as recently as two runs in June and on her only effort to date over today's trip, she was third at Newcastle 17 days ago. The going was probably a little too fast for her that day and this should be more to her liking. I'd be expecting her to at least make the frame at 5/1 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:
Rasselas / Appyjack @ 11.19/1 (11/4 & 9/4 : BetVictor)
Rasselas / Lil Sophella @ 21.50/1 (11/4 & 5/1 : BetVictor)
The Osteopath / Appyjack @ 13.63/1 (7/2 & 9/4 : BetVictor, Hills & SkyBet)
The Osteopath / Lil Sophella @ 26/1 (7/2 & 5/1 : BetVictor)