Double Dutch, 12th February 2014
The month of February has been very kind to us so far and yesterday's double took our tally to seven successes in the first eleven days of the month. The current run is actually 9 from 13 for 32.64pts profit.
Yesterday was a milestone day for us, as we notched up our 50th success and getting 14.75/1 about a pair of 2/1 shot once highlighted the benefits of using the BOG bookies.
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Arr Kid: won at 2/1 (adv 5/2)
Outrageous Request: 3rd at 5/2 (adv 7/2)
Too Cool To Fool: won at 2/1 (adv 7/2)
Mumgos Debut: PU at 9/2 (adv 3/1)
Results to date:
148 winning selections from 518 = 28.40%
50 winning bets in 138 days = 36.23%
P/L : +32.68pts (+12.01% ROI)
We've lost both Chepstow & Clonmel from today's multinational programme, but there's still plenty to aim at from England & Scotland, including these:
It's over 14 months since we last saw Golan Way on a racecourse, but if he can run to anything like his past form, this race is here for him to take. Last seen finishing 3rd at Sandown 4 grades higher than today, just 2.5 lengths behind the winner off a mark of 147, he comes here to run off 135, which has got to help his cause. He has won 8 out of 22 NH races to date, including victories at Grade 2 and Listed class.
I don't expect him to scale those heights again, but any sign of his past ability should be enough here. This is a shorter trip than he normally prefers, but as a reintroduction to racing could prove perfect, hence his current odds of 5/4 BOG (BetVictor). He has moved to Tim Vaughan's yard during his absence and Tim has a 35% strike rate in these hunter events.
Yet, I still prefer the look of Habbie Simpson for this one and he can be backed at a generally available 9/4 BOG. A very useful Group standard hurdler who got quite close to Bob's Worth on a couple of occasions and has made a decent start to life as a chaser, finishing 2nd in his first two attempts , within a length of the winner on both occasions. He broke his duck in a similar contest to today's when winning by 11 lengths at Wetherby last time out and can take advantage of any rustiness the favourite might display here.
The favourite and generally perceived most likely winner of this Class 4 contest is the 3/1 shot Brocklebank, who comes here on the back of an impressive run to finish just a length behind Alfred Hutchinson over this trip at Lingfield 19 days ago. That was a much better Class 2 event and although he's now rated a pound higher for that run, the dropping down by 2 grades suggests a similar run should be more than enough. He has won 3 times over this trip in the past, but his 0/6 record here at Kempton means that my preferred option is...
...Light from Mars who won this race a year ago off a mark 3lbs higher than today. He's a really consistent sort who has won 6 of 26 races over today's trip and was last seen here finishing 2nd here at Kempton 12 days ago. That was over an inadequate 6f, but he was only beaten by three parts of a length and he was finishing strongest of all, suggesting that the step back to 7f is required.
He's up 2lbs for that run, but today's mark of 81 is no higher than his last victory, so we knows it's a level he can be competitive from. Coral currently offer 5/1 BOG about him recording a third C&D victory, having won off 80 & 84 around this time last year, and I think that might be a huge price come race time.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Golan Way / Brocklebank @ 8/1 (5/4 & 3/1 : BetVictor)
Golan Way / Light from Mars @ 12.20/1 (6/5 & 5/1 : Coral)
Habbie Simpson / Brocklebank @ 12/1 (9/4 & 3/1 : BetVictor)
Habbie Simpson / Light from Mars @ 18.5/1 (9/4 & 5/1 : Coral)