Double Dutch, 12th February 2015
Just as it was on Tuesday, Wednesday's selections combined to give us another low-priced (6.31/1) double. Once again, both races were won by the shorter priced horses, with our second picks both drifting but getting well beaten.
At Lingfield, Feb Thirtyfirst was backed in from 9/4 to evens and won by 2.5 lengths with our other runner Uganda Glory (5/1 from 7/2) back in 4th place beaten by 7.5 lengths.
We then had just 50 minutes to wait before Streets of Newyork put his six rivals to the sword. Backed into 10/11 from our advised 5/4, the internet/newspapers will tell you he beat 2nd choice El Beau by two lengths on his way to landing us a bonus forecast at 4.48/1, but that's not quite what happened. He fairly routed the field and eased right down after clearing the last hurdle, El Beau stayed on and finished with a fair old rattle, making the result seem closer than it ever was.
Wednesday's results were as follows:
Feb Thirtyfirst : WON at Evs (adv 9/4)
Uganda Glory : 4th at 5/1 (adv 7/2)
Streets of Newyork : WON at 10/11 (adv 5/4)
El Beau : 2nd at 9/2 (adv 3/1)
(The forecast paid £5.48)
Results to date:
486 winning selections from 1703 = 28.54%
151 winning bets in 441 days = 34.24%
P/L : +97.97pts (+11.11% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I'm hoping to keep this little run of form going today with these for Thursday...
The two form horses at the top of the market are the ones to take from this one, even if it's not a particularly exciting bet! Down Ace had made a great start to her chasing career, finishing 2321 in her first four starts, starting with a run here at Thurles. She has sort of lost her way a little of late, falling here four weeks ago and then finishing well down the field at Leopardstown three days later.
In fairness to Down Ace, though, those two races were firstly at Grade 2, then Grade 1 level, where Foxrock (near miss in the Hennessy Gold Cup since) was the winner. This represents a hefty drop down in quality and looks the ideal vehicle for her to get back to winning ways at 7/4 BOG. She will, however, have to beat the equally impressive Our Katie to do so.
Our Katie has had four starts over fences to date, finishing 2421 in the process. She was last seen almost 7 weeks ago when winning fairly comfortably here at Thurles over 2m6f on Heavy ground. She has tackled 3m once in the past, finishing 3rd in a Grade 2 hurdle at Fairyhouse and based on her last run, she not lack for stamina and looks to have a good chance at 13/8 BOG.
Kilgeel Hill was third behind subsequent Grade 2 winner, Caracci Apache last time out and there's no disgrace in that, but this represents an easier task on paper. prior to that outing, he was a comfortable winner at Leicester under today's jockey and with that race being a conditionals' race, there was no penalty attached to the win, enabling the jockey to claim his full 10lbs allowance here, effectively placing this horse at the foot of the weights, despite his obvious ability, giving him an excellent chance at 2/1 BOG.
I'd then expect Atlantic Gold to be the main danger, if he can build upon a decent third on debut in a Southwell bumper and a subsequent runner-up finish on his hurdling debut at Market Rasen. His third and final career run wasn't as bad as it looks on paper, as he finished 6th of 17 at Warwick, beaten by 51 lengths. In his defence, he plugged on to finish well clear of many of his rivals, but not only was he clearly unhappy with the testing conditions, he lost a shoe half way round! Conditions look better here today and he's currently a 7/2 BOG chance.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Our Katie / Kilgeel Hill @ 6.55/1 (13/8 & 15/8 : BetVictor)
Our Katie / Atlantic Gold @ 10.38/1 (13/8 & 10/3 : BetVictor)
Down Ace / Kilgeel Hill @ 6.88/1 (13/8 & 2/1 : Stan James)
Down Ace / Atlantic Gold @ 10.81/1 (13/8 & 7/2 : Stan James)