Double Dutch, 12th January 2015
The good news from Saturday was that I highlighted a nice 11/2 winner in the shape of Smooth Stepper, who continued a fine run of f0rm for Sue's Smith's yard. He took the lead on the run in and quickly asserted his superiority with a near-3 lengths victory.
Our other runner and early favourite, Centasia, was friendless in the market, drifting from 5/2 to 9/2 and finished in 5th place, some 14 lengths adrift.
This meant we'd a handy looking stake going onto our two runners at Lingfield, but neither Chicago Bere nor Turning Time could make the first two home, never mind the win.
The former was the more disappointing of the two, never really looking like winning on his way to a 4th place finish, beaten by around 4 lengths, despite having the inside line. Turning Times may well have only finished third, but he did, at least, give us a better run for our money.
He went down by just over a length and he not started wide and gone wider still around the final turn, it might have been a different story with a 21.75/1 double as opposed to the 2pt loss we endured!
Saturday's results were as follows:
Smooth Stepper: won at 9/2 (adv 11/2)
Centasia: 5th at 9/2 (adv 5/2)
Turning Times: 3rd at 5/2 (adv 15/8)
Chicago Bere: 4th at 3/1 (adv 10/3)
Results to date:
457 winning selections from 1598 = 28.60%
142 winning bets in 414 days = 34.30%
P/L : +75.42pts (+9.11% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Not a lot to aim at today, but we'll try these for size...
Tigre D'Aron was disappointing when pulled up last time out, but the race was run in away that didn't suit him and came just 26 days after only his second run in two years, so it might just have been too soon. He's had another month off now and wasn't ridden hard last time either. Prior to that he had made all here over over course and distance on heavy ground, easing to a 14 length victory. He jumps well and if allowed to dominate, could run away with this at 11/4 BOG.
If, however, he's taken on for the lead and there are a couple of others here (Burgess Dream & Regal Flow) who might just fancy that approach, then there could be a burn up, allowing the held-up Golanova to stay on and take it at 2/1 BOG. He doesn't win enough races for my liking (1/14 overall, 1/11 over obstacles), but is a consistent sort who has made the frame in 7 of his 11 attempts over hurdles/fences (224 in chases).
Team Moore have a good record here at Plumpton and Golanova receives 12 lbs from Tigre D'Aron, so it could be a close encounter today.
A strange one here, where I'm not quite sure which horse I think will win! However, had one of either Mr Fickle or Nouailhas not been running, I'd have been backing the one that did run. As it happens, they both run and at 6/4 and 5/2 respectively, don't offer too much value as betting options.
However, taking both as the second leg of a double is ideal (assuming, of course, we got the winner an hour earlier!) and I expect this to become a two-horse race.
Mr Fickle is trained by Gary Moore, who as I said above does well here at Plumpton and this horse handles the mud quite easily too. He's rated the best horse in the race and comes here on decent nick, finishing as runner-up on his two starts over hurdles this winter. he wasn't beaten by far on either occasion and the drop back in trip will help as will his jockey's 10lb claim.
In a similar vein, Nouailhas has also been the runner-up and not beaten by far in his last two starts, including a race over course and distance here four weeks ago when beaten by just a length and a quarter on heavy ground. He was second last time out at Fontwell, despite running from 4lbs out of the handicap and afer all jockey claims are considered, the 19lbs he gets from the favourite could be decisive.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Golanova / Mr Fickle @ 6.63/1 (41/20 & 6/4 : Betbright)
Golanova / Nouailhas @ 9.83/1 (41/20 & 51/20 : Betbright)
Tigre D'Aron / Mr Fickle @ 9.38/1 (11/4 & 6/4 : generally)
Tigre D'Aron / Nouailhas @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : Betfred, Paddy & Betfair SB)