Double Dutch, 12th January 2016
Whisper it quietly, but after a poor run of form, we suddenly find ourselves looking for a hat-trick for DD, after wins on Saturday and then again yesterday. Saturday's success was a modest affair that ended a run of near misses, but yesterday's returns were far more substantial.
Both La Manga & Fable of Arachne were surprisingly easy to back at Kempton, drifting from 3/1 and 5/1 to 4/1 and 8/1 respectively and whilst I was secretly rather pleased at getting 5/1 about Fable of Arachne, imagine my delight when she was first home at 8/1!
We then only had 20 minutes to wait for leg 2, where Tijuca was slow away again, but wasn't as far adrift as her previous run over C&D and came with a very well timed finish to beat the very well backed (28/1 to 11/1) runner-up by just over two lengths going away. Tijuca returned at the advised 5/2 odds giving us a 30.5/1 double on the day.
Monday's results were as follows:
Fable of Arachne : WON at 8/1 (adv 5/1)
La Manga : 7th at 4/1 (adv 3/1)
Tijuca : WON at 5/2 (adv 5/2)
Roman De Brut : 5th at 9/4 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
779 winning selections from 2786 = 27.96%
242 winning bets in 721 days = 33.56%
P/L : +83.92pts (+5.82% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I liked the look of Secret Millionaire for this race last night, but odds of 7/4 BOG never float my boat for singles betting, but are a perfect lead-in to a double. This old warrior is 3 from 8 over course and distance and looked like returning to form when third over track and trip last Friday. He runs off an unchanged mark today in what looks a weaker affair against out of form horses and it could well be that a repeat of last week's effort will be enough.
As my alternate, I'll take the 2/1 BOG More Spice, who at 4yrs of age and just four runs under his belt, should still have some progression to make. By Exceed and Excel, he has shown early pace in the past without closing races out, but ran well last time around, depsite losing by four lengths on his handicap debut. He would probably have needed the run after 40 weeks off the track and should be involved more today.
Mac Gregory is the one for me here, despite his 7/4 BOG price being a little on the skinny side. Evan Williams has a good record here at Ludlow and he has done really well with his lower grade unexposed bumper runners. This is just Mac Gregory's second outing, but with a course and distance win on debut already in the bag, I'd expect him to follow up here.
In opposition, I'm going to go with Alf n Dor, who hasn't quite lived up to expectations just yet as a beaten favourite in two Market Rasen bumpers so far. He wears a tongue tie for the first time today and also makes a heavy ground debut here. He's by Flemensfirth which suggests he'll handle the conditions and his yard are very good in the mud and as Team Bowen's only runner of the day, they might be expecting a winner at 11/4 BOG to cover the diesel costs!
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...
Secret Millionaire / Mac Gregory @ 6.56/1 (7/4 & 7/4 : Betfair SB & Stan James)
Secret Millionaire / Alf n Dor @ 9.31/1 (7/4 & 11/4 : Ladbrokes)
More Spice / Mac Gregory @ 7.25/1 (2/1 & 7/4 : Stan James)
More Spice / Alf n Dor @ 10.25/1 (2/1 & 11/4 : Ladbrokes)