Double Dutch, 12th June 2014
A little bit of deja vu yesterday, as for what seems the millionth time, we had a winner coupled with a runner-up on a day of close finishes.
At Haydock, Hayley Turner managed to squeeze just enough out of Chosen Character, as I thought she might and they battled to a win by just a nose. A drift out to 5/1 meant we'd a nice stake for race 2 and with our more likely winner Khelman priced up at 100/30, it looked like we'd a great chance of securing a 25/1 double.
As it was, he came from well off the pace and was finishing best of all, but failed to overhaul the leader by just a head. It's difficult to grumble about a narrow defeat, especially when we had got on the right side of one earlier, but it does create a little frustration from time to time.
Wednesday's results were as follows:
Chosen Character: won at 5/1 (adv 4/1)
Magic of Reality: 3rd at 7/2 (adv 4/1)
Khelman: 2nd at 3/1 (adv 100/30)
Economic Crisis: u/p at 4/1 (adv 7/1)
Results to date:
254 winning selections from 917 = 27.70%
80 winning bets in 239 days = 33.47%
P/L : +29.63pts (+6.22% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
After a couple of close calls over the last two days, here's how I'm playing it on Thursday...
The two horses at the top of the market, Global Leader and Putin bring the best form to the table here in a race lacking in recent winners elsewhere. Admittedly, both horses have performed best on all-weather tracks, but winning becomes a habit and these two are in decent nick.
Global Leader is the 9/4 BOG favourite and comes here in a run of form reading 1132 in the last seven weeks, all under jockey Patrick Donaghy. The latest effort was a defeat by a head at Kempton over today's trip and off today's mark. He was only headed late on and that was after he'd run into the rail inside the final furlong.
He's a lightly raced (2 wins from 8 so far) 4 yr old who is 51132 at this trip and 5113 at this level and if transferring his good recent form to the turf today, aided by the booking of Ryan Moore, he should be the one to beat.
Of his rivals here, Putin has the best recent form, albeit on the A/W. He made all to win over 6f at Lingfield in January to win by 1.5 lengths, before taking a 130-day from racing. He then returned at Southwell 8 days ago where he attacked the race in the same manner, making all to win a 7f contest by four lengths staying on strongly.
His record on turf is pretty poor, but it's significant that he's being tried on grass again now that he's in form, His sole turf win came on good to firm ground and he has reserved some of his best performances for today's jockey Rachael Kneller who has a record of 1663521 on this horse. Putin is a bit of a punt at 6/1 BOG, but I think he's the best of a bad bunch if the favourite doesn't win and especially if allowed a soft lead.
Call of Duty has been in good form of late, with finishes of 3132 in the last two months. despite being 9yrs old and completely exposed via 76 previous starts, today is only his sixth visit to Haydock, where he has previously won twice and been placed once and had a record of two wins from three over course and distance.
He runs off the same mark of 51 as his last effort and receives weight from all his rivals bar one and looks a major player at 4/1 BOG, particularly if there's some pace to tow him along for a late run.
Merchant of Medici hasn't won for a long time, but there have been some promising signs of a return to form of late, with three placed finishes (323) on the bounce over the last seven weeks. The step up in trip allied to some help from the handicapper seems to be working and it's likely that he'll be back in the winners' enclosure soon.
He was third over course and distance on soft ground here last time out off today's mark of 60, but with Megan Carberry taking another 3lbs off his back, he's set to go even closer in this one. Micky Hammond's yard also seems to be running into some form with two of his last four runners winning and with this horse who won't mind the cut in the ground, he could be celebrating a 7/2 BOG winner this evening.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Global Leader / Merchant of Medici @ 13.63/1 (9/4 & 7/2 ; BoyleSports)
Global Leader / Call of Duty @ 15.25/1 (9/4 & 4/1 : BoyleSports)
Putin / Merchant of Medici @ 29.33/1 (6/1 & 10/3 : BetVictor)
Putin / Call of Duty @ 34/1 (6/1 & 4/1 : PP)