Double Dutch, 12th September 2014
Thursday was on of those winning, but losing days we get on occasions. I know that sounds wrong, but let me briefly explain.
Main selection Panther Patrol was withdrawn from the first race, which theoretically improved Debit's chances of victory, but in reality vastly reduces our hopes of a winning double. Debit, for his part, ran well enough, staying on to take third place, beaten by half a length.
I'm actually of the opinion that Panther Patrol would have been more than half a length better, but that's conjecture at best!
This meant that the double was already down before we got to Clonmel, but we did have the consolation of two singles there. And the good news there was that we called it absolutely spot on. We had 9/4 joint favourites, of which I preferred Coolfighter, whilst the market eventually favoured Moonmeister, who was sent off at 13/8.
As it was, Coolfighter won at 5/2, two lengths ahead of Moonmeister with the nearest rival a further 2.5 lengths back. A 5/2 winning single meant only a small 0.25pt loss on the day, which for me (and many of you!) was softened by a 5.9/1 forecast.
So a winning bet that lost money!
Thursday's results were as follows:
Debit : 3rd at 7/2 (adv 3/1)
Panther Patrol: non-runner (adv 7/2)
Coolfighter: won at 5/2 (adv 9/4)
Moonmeister: 2nd at 13/8 (adv 9/4)
The forecast paid £6.91 here.
Results to date:
347 winning selections from 1214 = 28.58%
114 winning bets in 317 days = 35.96%
P/L : +65.61pts (+9.38% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Here's where I'm at for Friday...
Since switching up to today's 1m2f trip, Go Sakhee has looked a different horse, finishing 1531 with a two from two record over this trip on good ground, as he'll face today. It might not have been the best race at Ripon last time out, but you can only beat what's in front of you and he dealt with his rivals imperiously that day. He made all and had the race won before the furlong pole, he didn't have to be ridden to a finish and still won by six lengths easing down.
A tougher test awaits Go Sakhee here today, but I'm not convinced the his penalty will be enough to stop him going in again and 11/4 BOG doesn't look too shabby at all. It might look generous later, here's hoping so!
Of the rivals, Specialty brings the best recent form to the table, coming here on a run of finishes reading 2422113 this season. The ground won't be an issue for this likeable 4 yr old filly out of Speciosa and although this is her first crack at 1m2f, her mother's record suggests she'll handle the extra distance. She has had a good season so far, pparticularlyafter the move up to 1m for her last few runs and she has been shaping as though she wanted/needed to go further.
If pushed for an opinion, I don't expect Specialty to beat Go Sakhee, but I do think she's as good or better than any other in this field and 5/1 BOG with Boylesports looks a fairly good price here.
This doesn't look a particularly strong maiden and top-rated and 15/8 BOG favourite Chief Suspect looks the one to beat. he has improved in each of his three runs to date, culminating in a very narrow defeat at Dundalk last time out. That was almost four weeks ago when he was conceding 5lbs to 71-rated Refusetolisten, but was only beaten by a nose on the line. Our runner was almost two lengths clear of Mansuri, who ran on Monday at Galway and improved to a runner-up finish.
Mutawed looks an interesting arrival to the Irish racing scene after showing some promise in France, where he finished third last out at Chantilly for trainer Freddie Head. The booking of Joseph O'Brien to take the ride is very interesting too. There's no doubt about Joseph's talent and it may just be that his presence might be the little extra needed to get over the line today at 3/1 BOG.
There's not much else I can say about this horse, other than he's just about my second choice in a poor-looking encounter, ahead of the ex-Marco Botti runner Pershing, who I feel might struggle dropping back from 10f to 7f here.
4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:
Go Sakhee / Chief Suspect @ 9.78/1 (11/4 & 15/8 : SkyBet)
Go Sakhee / Mutawed @ 14/1 (11/4 & 3/1 : Bet365 & SkyBet)
Specialty / Chief Suspect @ 14.81/1 (9/2 & 15/8 : SkyBet)
Specialty / Mutawed @ 21/1 (9/2 & 3/1 generally)