Double Dutch, 13th December 2014
A short priced, but nontheless successful double got us back to winning ways yesterday, and it just as well that we take the BOG prices!
In race 1 Smart Motive was a 2/1 (from 11/4) winner with Echo Foxtrot 15 lengths and 2 places further back as the 15/8 favourite (adv 7/4). This meant that we'd still got a chance at Bangor 20 minutes later, where Centasia (adv 13/8) was backed as though defeat was out of the question and so it proved to be. She was a 6 length winner at 8/11, with Kelvingrove back in 3rd place at 8/1, 7 lengths off the pace after a massive drift out from 9/4.
Friday's results were as follows:
Smart Motive: won at 2/1 (adv 11/4)
Echo Foxtrot: 3rd at 15/8 (adv 7/4)
Centasia: won at 8/11 (adv 13/8)
Kelvingrove: 3rd at 8/1 (adv 9/4)
Results to date:
434 winning selections from 1510 = 28.74%
138 winning bets in 392 days = 35.20%
P/L : +86.36pts (+10.99% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Constraints of time mean I'll keep Saturday's picks brief!
On paper (and probably on the turf, too!), this looks an awful race, but Sea Wall looks the most likely to succeed here to me. Making just his fifth career start and fourth over hurdles, he ran well last time out after a break of almost 8 months to finish third at Plumpton over today's trip and on heavy ground. He was 1.25 lengths behind As De Mee and a further 4.5 lengths adrift of Seedling that day, but those those horses have run and won again since. If he runs to that form, then Sea Wall has every chance of breaking his duck at 15/8 BOG.
The interesting one here is Cappielow Park, who does at least bring some past form into the race. He's got a decent record in and around this trip, acts well on soft & heavy ground and has won on heavy in the past. He has been kept sharp by running on the Flat over the summer and came back from a 19-week break for a pipe opener at Kempton 10 days ago, when only beaten into third place over 1m4f on the A/W. he was within a length and three quarters of the winner and that ground speed might prove vital if he's still pitching in late on. You can back Cappielow Park as high as 9/2 BOG.
Volnay de Thaix is still young and progressive, but probably found 3 miles too far last time out. That said, he wasn't disgraced in staying on to finish fourth, but will probably feel more at home dropping back half a mile. he's 2/3 on good to soft ground, 4/6 under Barry Geraghty's steering and has a 121 record in these small fields and would probably have been a warm favourite here, but for the presence of Rock on Ruby, who at 9 yrs old isn't the force he was, but loves it here at Cheltenham, acts well under today's ground conditions and showed signs of a return to top form with a very creditable third on his seasonal reappearance at Wincanton last time out.
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
Sea Wall/ Rock on Ruby @ 7.14/1 (21/10 & 13/8 : betbright)
Sea Wall / Volnay de Thaix @ 7.27/1 (15/8 & 15/8 : paddy power)
Cappielow Park / Rock on Ruby @ 13.44/1 (9/2 & 13/8 : bet365)
Cappielow Park / Volnay de Thaix @ 14.81/1 (9/2 & 15/8 : bet365)