Double Dutch, 13th June 2014
Another day of near misses and what ifs on Thursday, I'm afraid. In what is becoming a very frustrating tale of woe, we were beaten into second place in both races yesterday, as firstly Global Leader was beaten by just half a length, before Merchant of Medici made the frame without winning for the fourth race on the bounce, going down by just a nose despite leading well into the final furlong.
Thursday's results were as follows:
Global Leader: 2nd at 5/4 (adv 9/4)
Putin: u/p at 12/1 (adv 6/1)
Merchant of Medici: 2nd at 3/1 (adv 7/2)
Call of Duty: u/p at 4/1 (adv 4/1)
Results to date:
254 winning selections from 921 = 27.58%
80 winning bets in 240 days = 33.33%
P/L : +27.63pts (+5.78% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Here are my selections for Friday...
The ground was too soft for Just Paul at Catterick three weeks ago when well beaten off today's mark of 81, which was a 5lb rise from his previous run, a C&D victoty here at Musselburgh, where his form is sensational at 1211 with all 3 wins coming over course and distance (2nd was over a mile) and he's currently a 9/2 BOG chance to extend that run.
All his six career wins and his best form has come on ground no worse than good to soft, so conditions are ideal for him here today and with Joey Haynes claiming 5lbs today, he's effectively back to the same winning mark from two starts ago, when he won by the best parts fo two lengths, despite being denied a clear run and had to be switched in and out a couple of times.
Best of Order is also of interest here, as his UK form line of 814 doesn't even begin to tell the full story. This 7yr old has run over 40 times now and last year had finishes of 2421 in france, so he came over here with some decent form behind him. The ground was far too quick on his UK debut at Newmarket last July, but he reappeared at Doncaster 32 days ago after a break of 303 days to win over today's trip on heavy ground, which would surely have provided a stiff test of stamina.
He ran again 19 days later (13 days ago) and was fourth at York, beaten by less than three lengths in a much stronger race than this one and on similar good to soft ground as we're seeing today. He's only the second runner from that York to run again, after Balty Boys (5 lengths behind) ran and won at Nottingham nine days ago, beating a 105-rated horse in the process. If fully wound up for this, he could be a big player at 7/2 BOG.
In the last month AP McCoy has ridden nine times for John Ferguson recording three victories and three runner-up finishes and they team up here with the classy Dubai Prince who is already proving a hit over hurdles, winning three times from six efforts and who comes here seeking a hat-trick.
The going is set to be good today and his natural pace between obstacles will be a vital asset this evening. He won five of his seven starts on the flat, including two group 3 contests. He has a couple of good ground wins to his name and is 3 from 3 at Class 3 level. He's up in the weights and is now rated 134, but could still be leniently treated based on his flat form and I fancy him to take this at 3/1 BOG with BetVictor.
I would expect Minella Reception to be the main threat at 100/30 BOG (also with BetVictor). His form this year reads 1321 and was a comfortable winner last time out at Southwell when making all and quickening away late on ten days ago. He carries a 7lb penalty for that win, but is still a further 4lbs ahead of the assessor and if allowed to dictate affairs again today, he could cause problems for Dubai Prince.
He's a versatile sort, who has won on both heavy and Good to Firm ground and won three times and placed three times from 11 starts in and around today's trip.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Best of Order / Dubai Prince @ 17/1 (7/2 & 3/1 : BetVictor)
Best of Order / Minella Reception @ 18.50/1 (7/2 & 10/3 : BetVictor)
Just Paul / Dubai Prince @ 21/1 (9/2 & 3/1 : BetVictor)
Just Paul / Minella Reception @ 22.83/1 (9/2 & 10/3 : BetVictor)