Double Dutch, 13th March 2014
We managed to find another winner yesterday and it was a case of good news and bad news depending on how you view it.
By the time Tee It Up Tommo had run out a 9/4 winner in the very last race of the day, our double was already down, after Cascadia could only finish second earlier in the afternoon. Unfortunately my fancy (and also on Matt's Shortlist) Stoney Quine was withdrawn from the race.
This meant our chances of success were immediately halved, but we got the consolation of a return on the second half of the Stoney Quine / Tommo double.
This paid out 1.63pts, meaning only a small loss on the day.
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Cascadia: 2nd at 7/4 (adv 5/1 pre R4)
Stoney Quine: non-runner (adv 9/2)
Tee It Up Tommo: won at 9/4 (adv 9/4)
Prince Blackthorn: 3rd at 7/2 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
178 winning selections from 625 = 28.48%
60 winning bets in 165 days = 36.36%
P/L : +47.27pts (+14.50% ROI)
I'm still swerving Cheltenham (for DD purposes, anyway!), so we're off hurdling/sprinting elsewhere!
The withdrawal of Bowie from this race seems to have made the task considerably easier for Scots Gaelic here. recent form figures of P3U are admittedly uninspiring, but they don't tell the whole story. He was pulled up 2 out on New Year's Day (2m4f on Soft) and was a battling third, but weakened late on at Musselburgh six weeks ago when beaten by less than 4 lengths over 2m4f on soft ground again, before unseating Jason Maguire at the second last time out.
It's hard to say how well/badly he ran that day, having exited so early, but a drop back to the minimum trip (1 win and 5 places from 8 starts) on better ground at a lower class should set him up nicely for a win at 2/1 BOG with Betfred.
If however, he doesn't run as well as expected, I fully expect Great Link to be there or thereabouts to pick up the pieces. He's lightly raced/unexposed after just six starts to date and only five over hurdles, winning twice. He's 2 from 3 over today's trip and his only other run was over 1m4f at Wolverhampton as recently as 10 weeks ago, when he won by 2.5 lengths staying on. That win suggests he'll not be hanging about between the hurdles, making a live threat at an attractive 7/2 BOG with Stan James for Josh Hamer's only ride of the day and for a trainer he has a very good record with.
Huzzah won back to back contests here at Wolverhampton (7f & 9.5f) before finding the step up to a mile and a half too much of a challenge. He ran well enough, but faded badly late on which suggests he'll be far better suited by the drop back in trip tonight. Talented 7lb claimer Ali Rawlinson is in the saddle here, hoping to improve their 2/4 record together and they are the most likely to win here at an attractive 100/30 BOG (PP & BetVictor).
You could then make claims for two or three of his rivals here today, but I'm going to side with Supa Seeker. A record of 1 win from 35 starts (1/18 flat and 0/17 on A/W) is uninspiring to say the least, but he's a consistent sort and in the last year has made five appearances over course and distance, finishing 23632 in the process. The reasoning (other than this consistency) behind the pick is the presence of Luke Morris in the saddle and the fact that he's now dropped to the same mark (48) as his sole victory to date.
No disrespect to the jockeys who have tried and failed on this horse in the past, but he has finished within a length or so of a winner on several occasions without the aid of what you'd consider a "top" jockey on board and it may just be that Luke is able to just get a little bit more from the horse. There's some value (in my opinion, anyway) in taking a bit of a punt at 5/1 BOG in most places.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Scots Gaelic / Huzzah @ 11/1 (2/1 & 3/1 : BetFred & Hills)
Scots Gaelic / Supa Seeker @ 17/1 (2/1 & 5/1 : BetFred)
Great Link / Huzzah @ 17.78/1 (100/30 & 100/30 : BetVictor)
Great Link / Supa Seeker @ 26/1 (7/2 & 5/1 : Stan James)