Double Dutch, 13th May 2014
Another increasingly familiar tale of woe yesterday, as yet again we had a winner coupled with a runner-up and this time we were denied a terrific 33/1 by just a short head after two fantastic contests.
Race 1 was very good for us, as both our runners battled it out to the line, and from an odds perspective we achieved the perfect result with our 15/2 shot beating our 7/4 favourite and landing a near 24/1 exacta in the process.
In the second race, Menelik was disappointing, but Miss Tiger Lily almost reaped the reward for a brave piece of front running. She set off for home quite early (perhaps a little too early!), but was collared very late in the piece, by a horse that was in reality hard to fancy.
Monday's results were as follows:
Newgate Queen: won at 15/2 (adv 7/1)
Deep Resolve: 2nd at 13/8 (adv 7/4)
The Exacta paid £24.80 here.
Miss Tiger Lily: 2nd at 2/1 (adv 3/1)
Menelik: u/p at 5/2 (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
233 winning selections from 815 = 28.59%
75 winning bets in 214 days = 35.05%
P/L : +53.94pts (+12.72% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Tuesday's selections are as follows...
I backed Sirpertan for Stat of the Day a fortnight ago, when he won at Newcastle, beating Newgate Queen (yesterday's 15/2 winner for DD!) by a good couple of lengths and I don't expect a 6lb rise in the weights being enough to stop him going in again. Talented claimer Jason Hart takes the ride again for in-form trainer Mark Walford and they'll be hard to beat today at 9/4 BOG.
Sirpertan will enjoy the soft ground here, as he did last time out when dropping into this Class 6 level for the first time. This (if possible!) actually looks a weaker contest than his last run up at Newcastle and if the form from that race pans out as it did for Newgate Queen yesterday, we'll be halfway to an elusive double.
Of his rivals, it's not easy to make a compelling case for any of them, with none of them proven at this trip, but the biggest danger might well come from a tentative selection: the 11/4 shot Aldreth, whose best run to date was a runner-up finish at Redcar on soft ground last time out. This, however, is an extra three furlongs than he's used to, but he is dropping in class for this outing. He runs off the same mark of 57 as last time, when he was 2.25 lengths ahead of Deep Resolve (2nd to Newgate Queen by a head yesterday).
So, both runners should get the ground conditions and if Aldreth gets the trip, they're both closely matched to yesterday's successful 1-2 finish, here's hoping for a similar result.
This represents the day's best chance for the mother/daughter Team Gardner combo to improve on their excellent record over the last 18 months or so. Together they have won 14 of 80 races (17.5% SR) for 99.53pts (+124.4% ROI) and they combine here with Clouds of Mist, currently available at 5/1 BOG with Hills.
She has won over this trip in the past and whilst her last win was almost her a year ago, she has only run four tines in that period. She'll relish the soft ground here today, as that's how it was for that win at Cartmel over this trip at the end of May last year, yet this is a drop in class and against her own sex, both of which should make life a little easier today.
I should also mention that she beat Granaruid by 12 lengths that day and the latter has since gone on to win four races, so with condition set to be in our favour, we could take this.
The main danger is going to be the 5/2 favourite On The Move for the Anthony Honeyball yard, who seem to be coming into some decent form of late. This horse has been running well recently, with a win and a third place finish in her last two outings, but gets to run off the same mark as her last run and I expect her to go well again at this slightly shorter trip.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Sirpertan / On The Move @ 10.38/1 (9/4 & 5/2 : generally)
Sirpertan / Clouds of Mist @ 18.50/1 (9/4 & 5/1 : Hills)
Aldreth / On The Move @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : generally)
Aldreth / Clouds of Mist @ 20/1 (5/2 & 5/1 : Hills)