Double Dutch, 13th November 2014
No joy yesterday, I'm afraid, but I did at least gain one for the notebook as a minor consolation, but more about that in a moment.
Baby King was well backed (5/4f from our 9/4) in our first race and ran well before tiring late on. This tiredness was probably the reason for his fall 2 from home, but he was pretty much beaten by that point. Our other runner Goohar was outpaced in the midsection of the race, but battled to stay on, finishing third, just over 7 lengths off the pace.
Race 2 was an interesting affair, Badr al Badoor beat Patentar by just a length, but both had to settle for the minor placings, as Magic City pulled away to in in the final furlong. Magic City really caught the eye on his first A/W run for a year and if he embarks on a winter campaign, I'll be keeping an eye out for him. I suspect he'll win more races on this surface and will recoup my losses from yesterday for me.
Wednesday's results were as follows:
Goohar: u/p (3rd of 5) at 3/1 (adv 9/2)
Baby King: fell at 5/4 (adv 9/4)
Badr al Badoor: 2nd at 7/2 (adv 3/1)
Patentar: 3rd at 9/4 (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
405 winning selections from 1411 = 28.70%
130 winning bets in 367 days = 35.42%
P/L : +62.70pts (+8.55% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Thursday's selections are as follows...
With two 7/4 joint favourites with the nearest rival out at 5/1, the bookies see this as a two-horse race and I'm inclined to agree with them.
Of the two contenders, I think that Queen Spud looks more likely to prevail here as she drops back down on class to today's C4 level, where she won her last two outings. She was 4th last time out a grade higher at Ludlow five weeks ago and although she was only 4th of 8 that day, there were mitigating circumstances behind the defeat, where she wasn't disgraced going down by just over 4 lengths.
Queen Spud tired that day in the closing stages of a 3 mile encounter, but it was her first effort beyond 2m 5f, so not only a step up in class but a bid increase in trip and it was also her first run after a five month break. She'll come on for the run and the drop in both trip and class will surely help her today, hence her current 7/4 BOG price tag.
The other 7/4 BOG jt fav is Prettyasapicture, who despite only winning one of her seven hurdles races to date, always gives a good account of herself. Her last run saw her finish 5th at Warwick and that's only the second time she's failed to make the frame over hurdles in a sequence reading 3342125. The "5" isn't actually as bad as it looks either, as she actually led over the last flight but tired on the run-in, the softer ground eventually taking its toll on her.
She gets firmer conditions underfoot today, where she has produced her better runs to date and should my main preference not perform, then Prettyasapicture should be the one to benefit most.
The 9 yr old veteran Captain Dunne has already ran 75 races, so you could be forgiven for thinking he's massively overexposed, but you might not know that only 2 of those 75 starts have been on the A/W! Both were here at Southwell and both were over today's course and distance and both ended in victory. He won a couple of races in the summer over today's trip and showed signs of a return to form when beaten by less than a length into third place at Ripon on his last outing 7 weeks ago.
He runs off the same mark of 75 as his last run, but will be aided by his jockey's 7lb claim, which could make all the difference over today's minimum trip, a distance at which he he already won 9 times from 60 attempts (15% SR) and will seek to hit double figures at 3/1 BOG today. Jockey Rachel Richardson has ridden him to victory on two previous occasions (from 7) and seems to know how to get him to perform.
The big danger will surely be the 2/1 BOG favourite Poyle Vinnie who comes here in excellent consistent form, having made the frame in each of his last 8 races (13311232) and has only failed to finish in the first three in three of his 14 career starts to date. His trainer has an excellent record at this track and he drops his runner back down in trip to the minimum where the horse has won 3 of 7 starts.
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
Queen Spud / Poyle Vinnie @ 7.25/1 (7/4 & 2/1 : Coral)
Queen Spud / Captain Dunne @ 10/1 (7/4 & 3/1 : Coral)
Prettyasapicture / Poyle Vinnie @ 7.25/1 (7/4 & 2/1 : generally)
Prettyasapicture / Captain Dunne @ 10/1 (7/4 & 3/1 : BetFred)