Double Dutch, 13th September 2014
A pair of runners-up was as good as it got on Friday, I'm afraid.
Firstly Go Sakhee was beaten by a 16/1 outsider, who caught our selection in the shadow of the post to win by a head and then 95 minutes later across the Irish Sea, Chief Suspect also relinquished a lead inside the final furlong, going down by half a length.
And that's how tight the margins are in this game.
Friday's results were as follows:
Go Sakhee : 2nd at 2/1 (adv 11/4)
Specialty: u/p at 8/1 (adv 5/1)
Chief Suspect: 2nd at evens (adv 15/8)
Mutawed: u/p at 3/1 (adv 3/1)
Results to date:
347 winning selections from 1218 = 28.49%
114 winning bets in 318 days = 35.85%
P/L : +63.61pts (+10.01% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Saturday is our last opportunity of the, so here goes...
Despite a poor show last time out at Newmarket, Random Success' consistently good performances make her the one to beat here at 11/4 BOG. She has three wins and two runner-up finishes from her eight starts this year and it's highly likely that the soft ground she encountered on her latest run was the catalyst for an unusually poor run.
Both her trainer and her jockey are in decent form and both have good records at this track. Random Success runs well in these smaller fields (3 wins and a place from 5) and is a dual winner over today's trip.
I didn't there was much other than weight to separate the claims of Smart Daisy K and Shilla, but the fact that Shilla carries a stone less than her rival just edged it in her favour. She has been knocking on the door of late, having finished second on each of her last two outings and only beaten by a neck and half a length respectively.
I think she possibly needs further than this bare 5f she has been contesting of late and the stiffer finish here at Bath might just the trip "play longer" to use a golfing analogy. If it is seen as a tougher 5f than last time out, Shilla is sure to be staying on to get involved and at 5/1 BOG looks like offering some real value off an unchanged mark.
Where the winner of last months' Yorkshire Oaks, Tapestry is currently installed as the 2/1 BOG favourite after that success at York. She edged out Taghrooda in that Group 1 contest, just a month after she herself had been narrowly defeated in the Irish Oaks, where Bracelet beat her by a neck. She's obviously on top of her game and is a class act, but I do have a couple of nagging doubts about her, which is the good thing about Double Dutch, because I get two bites of the cherry.
I'm concerned about the sharp drop in trip from 12f to the mile here, for although she opened her career with wins at 6f and 7f, Tapestry's record over a mile isn't great and I think she could well get outpaced and left with too much to do. The other nagging doubt is the presence of my preferred pick, Rizeena, who currently holds a 3-0 advantage over the favourite.
The trip will not be the undoing of Rizeena should she not win here. She has won two of her five Group 1 races to date and was the runner-up in two more. She's a group 1 winner at both 7f and today's mile and she loves the quicker ground. Seven to eight furlongs on good/good to firm ground are her optimum conditions and that's exactly what she'll get here. We might well get a 1-2 here, but I fancy Rizeena to lead them home and 5/2 BOG looks generous.
4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:
Random Success / Tapestry @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : PP)
Random Success / Rizeena @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : BetVictor)
Shilla / Tapestry @ 17/1 (5/1 & 2/1 : SkyBet)
Shilla / Rizeena @ 20/1 (5/1 & 5/2 : Betfair Sportsbook)