Double Dutch, 14th August 2014
It was a favourites' day for the tipping services here on Geegeez. Both favourites won our selected races for another successful Double Dutch and at SPs of 15/8 and 13/8 would have combined to give a tidy 6.55/1 double, but thankfully the BOG kicked in to increase our profits by almost 32% with an early-price payout at 8.63/1. That's money you really can't afford to leave on the table.
I also know that many of you tied that double in with the Stat of the Day horse who was returned a 2.13/1 winner after Rule 4 deductions, making for a very nice 29/1 treble on the day and that's before the £6.30 exacta from race 2 is taken into consideration!
Many of you are already Gold members and get to see Stat of the Day every day, but those of you who haven't taken a look, you are missing out on a stack of stuff, so why not take a free 10-day trial right here?
Wednesday's results were as follows:
Rusty Nail: won at 15/8 (adv 5/2)
Boosha: u/p at 8/1 (adv 13/2)
Rosslyn Castle: won at 13/8 (adv 7/4)
The Ducking Stool: 2nd at 11/4 (adv 4/1)
The exacta paid £6.30 to a £1 stake here.
Results to date:
320 winning selections from 1119 = 28.60%
1065 winning bets in 292 days = 36.30%
P/L : +74.33pts (+12.68% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
And here's how I'm playing it on Thursday...
The bookies seem to think that this will boil down to a shootout between the two horses at the head of the market, and I'm inclined to agree with them here. Outback Traveller has been progressing nicely and has already won four of his seven starts to date, including a 2 from 2 record over course and distance. He hasn't raced on soft ground before and any further rain today might make life a little more difficult for him, but he's certainly on the rise and it would be foolish to ignore him here today.
He seems to travel well and stay on strongly and it's highly likely that he'll be stepping up in trip fairly soon and the softer ground could be a good test towards his future stamina. It's interesting to see Ryan Moore take the ride for the first time and that might well have shortened his 9/4 BOG price tag a little.
The other current 9/4 BOG joint favourite is my marginal preference Glorious Empire, who has won three of his five starts to date. His defeats came in a Group 3 (Jersey Stakes) and a decent Class 2 race last time out. Both defeats came at Ascot and perhaps he doesn't like it there? He finished fourth last time out, beaten by less than three lengths and fading late on over the mile. The drop back in trip will help him here and he'll be heartened by the run of Between Wickets last night.
Between Wickets was 5.5 lengths further back in that recent Ascot race, but won easily enough at Salisbury last night, albeit in a weaker race than this. He'll also relish the softer conditions underfoot, as he already has a win on soft ground under his belt
I nominated Strictly Glitz on Monday for this feature and she was a 6/1 winner as part of a successful double and she was suited by a stiffer trip and softer going, winning with a fair bit in hand as it happens. She has a penalty to consider today and an extra half furlong, but the manner of her run at nearby Thirsk earlier in the week suggests there's more improvement to come.
Joe Doyle's in the saddle once more after a good ride earlier in the week and he takes the customary 5lbs off, ensuring that his mount still receives plenty of weight from the main rivals and whilst we're not getting close to Monday's 6/1 advised price, a win here at 2/1 BOG will do very nicely, if we've been successful at HQ 50 minutes earlier.
As an alternate to the above selection, there's little between Daisy Boy and Shimba Hills for me, they both have pros and cons against their names today, but I've a slight leaning towards Shimba Hills despite him conceding weight all round. Like Daisy Boy (and Strictly Glitz) he carries a penalty for a win last time out, but he has shown a greater liking for cut in the ground than the 7/4 BOG favourite who has struggled so far on anything worse than good ground.
In fact Shimba Hills has two wins and two places on ground softer than good and has a similarly decent record at this type of trip, also winning twice and placing twice from six efforts. he made all to win quite comfortably at Ffos Las last time out (1m, soft) and although he won't have it all his own way here, he looks decent value at Ladbrokes' 5/1BOG.
4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:
Glorious Empire / Strictly Glitz @ 8.75/1 (9/4 & 2/1 : Bet365 & Hills)
Glorious Empire / Shimba Hills @ 18.50/1 (9/4 & 5/1 : Ladbrokes)
Outback Traveller / Strictly Glitz @ 9.5019.63/1 (5/2 & 2/1 : Betfair Sportsbook)
Outback Traveller / Shimba Hills @ 18.50/1 (9/4 & 5/1 : Ladbrokes)