Double Dutch, 14th February 2014
One of my poorer efforts yesterday, as both races went quite wrong for us. In the opener, the favourite Duke of Navan was a faller when already beaten and Doyly Carte could only finish 4th, more than 13 lengths off the pace.
Which is just as well, considering my second race provided the Double Dutch nightmare. I narrowed the race down to three possibles and as Sod's Law tends to dictate, the discarded horse goes on to win.
Not only did Knock A Hand win, it drifted from 11/4 to 9/2. I suppose that at least means I wasn't the only one who didn't fancy it!
Needless to say, the two I did pick came home in 2nd and 3rd: a £37.60 trifecta was nice, but I didn't back that either!
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Doyly Carte: 4th at 10/3 (adv 5/2)
Duke of Navan: fell at 2/1 (adv 10/3)
Titchwood: 2nd at 9/4 (adv 11/4)
Renard Dirlande: 3rd at 7/4 (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
149 winning selections from 526 = 28.33%
50 winning bets in 140 days = 35.71%
P/L : +28.68pts (+10.39% ROI)
So we're still on 50 doubles and still looking for our 150th winner. It will hopefully come from these two A/W races this evening:
Holy Roman Empire's progeny go well here at Dundalk and are very profitable to follow over tonight's 7 furlong trip. Two of the six runners are from HRE, but the one I like the look of is She's Not Simple, who was quite impressive when landing a maiden over 6 furlongs at Naas, which unfortunately resulted in an overzealous first handicap mark of 73, which was then raised to 75, despite her finishing 3rd of 6 next time out.
She was then dropped to 68 for her next (and latest outing), where she was by no means disgraced, finishing 3rd here at Dundalk over 6 furlongs and not only did she look like she wanted/needed further, her breeding suggests today's 7f will be to her liking. 11/4 BOG is generally available about this one.
The Firm is the big danger here coming off the back of a good win over a mile at this track last time out. That was admittedly a weaker race than this one, but winning is a habit and course form always seems to play its part here at Dundalk.
He's entitled to further progression and it is suggested that he'll also be more suited by the 1f drop in trip this evening and he's currently the 2/1 BOG favourite in most places.
P.S. In case Sod's Law applies again, Shabra Emperor is the other HRE offspring in the race.
Alumina comes here in great form seeking a hat trick of A/W wins after finishes of 3311 in her last four outings. She won by a length and a half at Kempton and was duly raised four pounds, but still demolished the field at Southwell last time out, winning by a good six lengths, despite easing down towards the line. She's up another 6lbs today, but that might not necessarily be enough, hence her current 7/4 BOG price with BetVictor & Stan James.
If however, this further weight rise proves too much, then Amahoro looks ready to pounce. I nominated her for Stat of the Day last time out, nine days ago and she did absolutely nothing wrong in defeat, going down by just a neck. That was her first run for 4 months and she's more than likely going to come on for having had a run.
She got to within a neck of Pool House, who is a decent sort oat this Class 4 level, but managed to put 4 lengths between herself and the next horse. The fact she's now race-fit and gets to run off the same mark as LTO makes her a real challenger here at a widely available 2/1 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
The Firm / Alumina @ 7.25/1 (2/1 & 7/4 : BetVictor & Stan James)
The Firm / Amahoro @ 8/1 (2/1 & 2/1 : generally)
She's Not Simple / Alumina @ 9.31/1 (11/4 & 7/4 : BetVictor)
She's Not Simple / Amahoro @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : BetVictor & Coral)