Double Dutch, 14th June 2014
Friday wasn't a good day, by any stretch of the imagination.
I may well have picked the 2nd and 3rd placed horses home in the later race at Aintree, but the damage had already well and truly been done earlier in the day at Musselburgh.
Both runners-up in Scotland were disappointingly well beaten as they trooped home 5th & 7th in a seven-horse race. It couldn't have been much worse.
Friday's results were as follows:
Just Paul: u/p at 11/4 (adv 9/2)
Best of Order: u/p at 9/2 (adv 7/2)
Minella Reception: 2nd at 10/3 (adv 7/2)
Dubai Prince: 3rd at 3/1 (adv 4/1)
Results to date:
254 winning selections from 925 = 27.46%
80 winning bets in 241 days = 33.20%
P/L : +25.63pts (+5.34% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
A wretched run of recent form that will hopefully end with these on Saturday...
An interesting little contest developing here with just four runners set to go to post. All have chances, I suppose, but I can't help but feel that Maskoon might be overpriced at 11/4 BOG. He progressed nicely (523) in three runs in March/April coming down in trip to today's 1m distance, where he gained a course and distance win on his latest (and fourth) start.
That C&D win was almost four weeks ago and he made all that day, but kept on well when challenged late on and looked to have plenty in reserve. The 2nd, 3rd and 5th placed horses that day (beaten by 0.5, 5.25 and 8 lengths respectively) are unbeaten in four runs between them since that day, so if the form hold out, Maskoon can make it a C&D double.
Of the others, you can make a case for all of them, but Nonchalant looked a difficult horse last time out and Agena (despite his obvious ability) might need the run after a break of 280 days, leaving us with Ponfeigh at 2/1 BOG.
Ponfeigh was third (less than 2 lengths) behind stablemate Ebanorean on debut in a very warm maiden at the Curragh last October: a race that has produced several subsequent winners and Group/Listed placers. he was then off the track for almost 8 months, but returned last week to win over today's trip, when staying on best to take the lead late on, winning by a neck.
He's entitled to come on again for that run and that makes him the biggest danger in my opinion.
Banreenahreenkah is 3132 here at Leicester with a win and a second place over course and distance. She was only beaten by half a length last time out (19 days ago over C&D) and with her jockey's claim taken into consideration, she's 5lbs better off than that run today and 13lbs lighter than her last win.
She handles this firmer ground well (3213) and after a few consistent runs, looks dangerously weighted for a return to the winners' enclosure at 3/1 BOG.
Travis Bickle is likely to be the favourite here, but he looks a tricky/unreliable sort and offers no real value at 7/4 BOG or shorter, so I'm siding with Ronya. She might still be a maiden after 8 attempts, but has shown enough promise of late to suggest that she could win a race or two.
Two fourth places and a third in her last three outings and never beaten by far suggests there's something about her and with Joey Haynes taking 5lbs off here, she;s also at the bottom end of the weights with Banreenahreenkah. She is, admittedly, a tentative selection, based on what might be, but I think that she offers us some value as an alternative at 11/2 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Ponfeigh / Banreenahreenkah @ 11/1 (2/1 & 3/1 : generally)
Ponfeigh / Ronya @ 18.50/1 (2/1 & 11/2 : BetVictor & Coral)
Maskoon / Banreenahreenkah @ 14/1 (11/4 & 3/1 : generally)
Maskoon / Ronya @ 23.38/1 (11/4 & 11/2 : Coral & Betfair Sportsbook)