Double Dutch, 14th September 2013
A blowout yesterday, alas. To today, and my very first cut at the Double Dutch. I've been itching to have a go at this since we started, not that that offers any sort of guarantee of success. It just means I like the concept!
Trial to date:
7 winning selections from 32 = 21.875%
1 winning doubles in 9 days
P/L : -11.75pts (-67.1% ROI)
As regular readers will know, this is a trial run and so far, it's not going terribly well. Unlike some services, we publish our numbers every day and never shy away from bottom line, in whatever light that shows us...
Let's crack on.
We'll try for a flyer in the second race of the day, a shallow-looking maiden at the Curragh, despite the big field. The vast majority of these can't possibly win and are only here to contribute towards their opening handicap mark. Two for whom those comments will not apply are favourite, Leafcutter, and the Ballydoyle first string, Five Star General.
Leafcutter offers the best level of form, having backed up a promising debut fourth here with a second place at Galway over this mile trip. That was on soft which is possibly why he failed to justify odds on, and back on terra firmer (sic), he should go very close in first time blinkers.
Five Star General looks the pick of Aidan O'Brien's pair, and this very well bred son of High Chapparal will stay the mile standing on his head. Hopefully he'll not try to do that as he'll have a far better chance of winning if standing on his hooves! Seamie Heffernan would have had the pick of this one and Illusive, himself a lovely Galileo colt.
The selections are 2/1 and 3/1 respectively, and with luck will set us up for the...
They had eleven millimetres of rain at the track overnight, and the going is soft. Therein lies my reason to oppose current favourite, Mar Mar. Obviously, taking two in a race, one of which is not the jolly can make you look stupid and, again, regular readers will know that I'm sufficiently accustomed to that not to fret.
But Mar Mar is in a three way scrap for market leadership in this and, while he has no form on ground softer than good and is not bred for it either, his fellow betting principles have, and are.
The Cheka ran in a Group 2 as recently as three starts ago and this Class 4 contest represents a further drop in grade after two recent conditions race efforts on quicker. He's got his ideal make up today: soft, seven furlongs, and a bit of pace (from Mar Mar and I'm So Glad) to run at.
Intibaah was second in Listed class two starts back and won on his only run on soft, which was in this grade. He's likely to stalk that early pace and has a good chance of returning to winning ways after failing to cope with Chester's dog track turns last time out.
They're around 3/1 the pair.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Leafcutter / The Cheka @ 12/1 with Paddy Power
Leafcutter / Intibaah @ 12/1 with bet365/Coral
Five Star General / The Cheka @ 15/1 BetVictor
Five Star General / Intibaah @ 17/1 Skybet