Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 15th August 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 15th August 2014

Thursday was another winning day for us here at the Double Dutch, although our overall payout was decimated by a 25p Rule 4 deduction in race 1.

That was because my second runner, Outback Traveller became a non-runner in the afternoon and although it technically increased the chance of my first pick winning, it brought the odds down from our advised 9/4 to 1.69/1. Mind you, that was better than the 5/6 SP he eventually won at!

This meant that we had 2 x 0.5pt singles on the two runners in race 2 in addition to the winnings from Glorious Empire. And as I rather hoped she would, our 2/1 shot Strictly Glitz did the business for us for the second time in four days. All told, it amounted to a 7.06/1 double and an extra pt from the single.

It's not exactly retirement money, but it's another step forwards and those of you doing the DD/SotD treble were rewarded with a 55/1 payout after a 6/1 winner at Chepstow.

Thursday's results were as follows:

Glorious Empire: won at 5/6 (adv 1.69/1 after 25p R4)
Outback Traveller: non-runner (adv 5/2)
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Strictly Glitz: won at 13/8 (adv 2/1)
Shimba Hills: u/p at 7/2 (adv 5/1)

Results to date:
322 winning selections from 1122 = 28.70%
107 winning bets in 293 days = 36.52%

Stakes: 588.00pts
Returns: 665.86pts

P/L : +77.86pts (+13.24% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Friday's selections are as follows...

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4.20 Nottingham:

The defection of Hot Coffee would appear to have left this as a two-horse contest between Cay Dancer and Scallop. Scallop was very impressive when landing her maiden victory at the second attempt seven weeks ago. She won by the best part of five lengths whilst easing down at Carlisle on decent ground and with the runner-up winning by a similar margin next time out, the omens are good for Scallop again today.

As a daughter of Yorkshire Oaks winner (and St.Leger runner-up) Quiff, she's not only bred to stay further than this 1m2f, but she's also expected to be far better than the mark 0f 84 allotted to her for her handicap debut today. This means she could well have a fair bit in hand, making her current 7/4 BOG odds look fairly generous come race time.

Cay Dancer has been far busier so far, having already run 10 races and with a record of 154131 is in good form this season. She stayed on well to score over today's trip at Newbury four weeks ago and although she now carries a penalty for that win, the booking of 5lb claimer Cam Hardie will offset the rise in weight. On paper, her 0.75 lengths victory over the re-opposing Miss Lucy Jane might not seem convincing, but she actually seemed to have plenty in reserve if needed and if Scallop doesn't quite fire today, she'll be an ideal backup plan at 100/30 BOG.

*

6.40 Catterick:

Kayo Koko stayed on well to win by two lengths over course and distance on her debut run just over three weeks ago and I fancy her to repeat that feat here this evening. A couple of those in behind her that time have gone on to run well and be placed again since. She's expected to improve further in handicap company, where her opening mark of 75 seems more than fair. This doesn't look that tough a race for a Class 4 event and her 7/2 BOG price might well represent a touch of value here.

If we're taking her improvement on trust, the same can't be said for Izzthatright, who has run into form for new trainer Richard Fahey. Finishes of 442 in two maidens and then a seller under the trainership of Nigel Tinkler was followed by a move to the Fahey yard in the middle of June. He then duly won over course and distance here at Catterick on both his yard and his handicap debut and has since followed that up with a decent runner-up performance at Chester, where he was only headed late on and beaten by just a half length.

It's highly possible that the softer ground took its toll that day at the quirky Roodee and on better ground at a more straightforward track, he should be more suited. He runs off the same mark of 78 as that run at Chester (due to go up another 4lbs), but jockey Jack Garrity claims 5lbs here, which could just tip things in his favour for a win at BetVictor's 85/40 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:

Scallop / Izzthatright @ 7.59/1 (7/4 & 85/40 : BetVictor)
Scallop / Kayo Koko @ 11.38/1 (7/4 & 7/2  : BetVictor)
Cay Dancer / Izzthatright @ 11.50/1 (3/1 & 85/40 : BetVictor)
Cay Dancer / Kayo Koko @ 17.78/1 (10/3 & 10/3 : BetFred)

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6 replies
  1. Josh Wright says:

    Hi Chris, you certainly are on fire at the moment…out of interest, given that you notched another DD/SOTD treble – do you have any records of how many times you have now achieved this feat, and the PL figures etc…would make interesting reading!

    as an aside, Kayo Koko is a selection for a mini system i use, simply backing once raced maiden winners next time out when they won between 1-2 lengths,and are relatively fancied (14/1 or under) -very consistent over past 5 years, and performs 20% above market expectation, 33% SR (37% for 7/2 or under)- as it happens Ann Dufield has had 4 such runners in that time, 3 of which have won!
    Josh

    • Chris Worrall says:

      Hi Josh,

      Thanks for the kind words, as always. I suppose it is checkable to see how the SotD/DD treble has fared, but it would be a manual job, so that might something for me to do on a rainy day.

      As for your microsystem, I find that really interesting as it fits right into the way I operate both personally and for SotD, which is often a horses that qualifies on several of miner and Matt’s microsystems, as seen yesterday with a horse that fitted four distinct criteria.

      Chris

    • Chris Worrall says:

      Yes, Chris, it’s here : http://www.geegeez.co.uk/double-dutch-16th-august-2014/

      Double Dutch appears every day bar Sundays and is generally online by 11am each day.
      Saturdays’ pieces may occasionally take a little longer, as there’s more racing to sift through.
      The best way of keeping up with when I’ve posted the daily selections is to follow us on Twitter (@geegeez_uk)

      Chris

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