Double Dutch, 15th December 2015
It's getting a bit like groundhog day here, as we seeem to be constantly hitting the crossbar. We ended up with a winner, a runner-up and another third place from our four runners yesterday, so whilst I'm happy with the picks, a win eluded us yet again.
And that's because Captainofindustry was collared in the shadow of the post in our opener at Ffos Las, as he ran out of steam late on to be pipped by the in form Wedge/Williams combo and Pobbles Bay.
They do, however, say that luck evens itself out over time and we only had to wait 80 minutes for the balance to be restored, as we got a very lucky win of our own for Black Narcissus. The leader Goring Two was travelling strongly and pouring it on approaching the last well clear of the field and as has happened to a few of my own selections of late, he made a hash of the last and hit the deck, handing us a very fortuitious victory.
So, I suppose, we pretty much ended up with what we deserved ie close,
Monday's results were as follows:
Captainofindustry : 2nd at 9/4 (adv 2/1)
Saint John Henry : 3rd at 11/4 (adv 7/2)
Black Narcissus : WON at 9/4 (adv 2/1)
It's A Close Call : fell at 4/1 (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
753 winning selections from 2702 = 27.87%
236 winning bets in 700 days = 33.71%
P/L : +76.6pts (+5.48% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Captain Bocelli showed enough promise in a couple of bumpers (inc a 40/1 win on debut!) to suggest he'll have enough in the locker to land a moderate hurdles race like this one. Add to the mix that he's moved to the Philip Hobbs yard and will be ridden by Richard Johnson gives an indication why this son of Kayf Tara is priced at 7/4 BOG to land another win on his hurdles/yard debut today.
The one to challenge him should be Poulanassy from the in-form Evan Williams stable, ridden by Adam Wedge who has also been well amongst the winners of late and they team up with a horse who has the benefit of two previous hurdles contests under his belt, including a win at Sedgefield last time out, where he made all on soft-ish ground. He's penalised for the win,. of course, but this looks a simlarly weak contest to that last run and at 4/1 BOG could offer some real value.
Despite an 8lb hike in weights, Tijuca looks well placed to record back to back victories after coming back to form at Wolverhampton last time out. She was weraing a tongue tie and cheekpieces for the first time that day and they seemed to do the trick as she swept from the rear of the 10-runner field to lead inside the final furlong and so strong was her finish that within the last 100 yards or so she opened up a near 4 length winning margin.
A repeat of that kind of run puts her right in the mix and provided she's not too far off the pace with 2f to run, she has every chance of doubling up at 11/4 BOG...
...ahead of triple course and distance winner and 7/2 BOG-priced Bennelong, who has just found one too good in each of his last two outings, both here in this grade and at 1m2f and it is hoped that a drop back in trip off a workable mark will be the key to getting him back into the winners' enclosure on his 102nd outing, but if he does find one too good again, it's hopefully Tijuca!
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...
Captain Bocelli / Tijuca @ 9.31/1 (7/4 & 11/4 : BetVictor & Betfair SB)
Captain Bocelli / Bennelong @ 11.38/1 (7/4 & 7/2 : generally)
Poulanassy / Tijuca @ 17.75/1 (4/1 & 11/4 : Betfair SB & Ladbrokes)
Poulanassy / Bennelong @ 21.5/1 (4/1 & 7/2 : generally)