Double Dutch, 15th July 2014
Our recent fine form was continued yesterday as things fell our way and we landed a 24.95/1 double. Stat of the Day followers were therefore able to help themselves to a treble at 116/1, but that's another story for another day!
It was a strange kind of day, where both "second" picks were winners and the reasoning behind them was good. In the opener, I suggested Miss Tenacious would look to get out and lead for most of, if not all of the 2 miles she faced. Not many others fancied her chances as she drifted from my advised 11/4 odds out to a huge 5/1 at the off.
Sure enough, she made all and predictably wasn't good over the 4th last fence and hit the last quite hard, but still stayed on to score by 3.5 lengths over our other runner Easily Pleased. The third placed horse was a further 12 lengths back and the forecast paid out at a very pleasing 14/1.
This gave us a good stake for race 2, where I expected Tears of the Sun to improve upon her recent outing at Chester and indeed she did, but was still beaten by 4 lengths into third place. Fortunately for us, Solidarity reminded us all of his consistency and showed that old Dubawi stamina as he stayed on well to win by a length and a half at 15/8, somewhat shorter than my original 7/2 (5p Rule 4) advice.
All in all, another good day, which puts us beyond 70pts profit in just 266 days. We're now just 4 winning days shy of the century and we're closing in fast on the 300 winner barrier.
Monday's results were as follows:
Miss Tenacious: won at 5/1 (adv 11/4)
Easily Pleased: 3rd at 7/4 (adv 5/2)
The forecast paid out at 14/1 here!
Solidarity: won at 15/8 (adv 7/2, 133/40 after R4)
Tears of the Sun: 3rd at 9/4 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
289 winning selections from 1019 = 28.36%
96 winning bets in 266 days = 36.09%
P/L : +73.19pts (+13.71% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Here are Tuesday's selections...
Dangerous Age might have been some 4.5 lengths off the pace last time out, but this contest represents a major drop in class and trip for this 4 yr old filly. She ran off 82 in a Class 2 contest, when last seen back in late-April and now she runs off just 75 in a Class 5 with the benefit of an 80-day break behind her. Her best form is admittedly on the A/W, but she's now back to her last winning mark in what looks a poor contest.
She has won 6 of 18 starts to date including a win on fast ground at Ffos Las on her last turf outing (Sept 2013). Her trainer (B Hills) is in decent enough form (6/17 in the last fortnight), as is jockey George Baker (20/86 in the last month). George also has a good record here at Bath, riding 15 winners from 67 sub-8/1 runners in the last 6 seasons and will fancy his chances of adding another 7/4 BOG winner to that record.
The main threat is most likely to come from Verus Delicia, who was a good winner over this trip at Brighton on fast ground three weeks ago and was subsequently a very creditable third at Chepstow in a big field handicap despite rising 6lbs for the previous win. She is eased back one pound today and with jockey Eoin Walsh taking another five off, she's back to that winning mark from two starts ago.
Verus Delicia will get the trip and will like the faster ground, leaving just the step up in class to contend with. That said, it's not the toughest of races and she has more than a fighting chance at 9/4 BOG.
I'd expect them to go at a fair old clip in this one tonight, as there seems to be plenty of pace around. This could well manifest itself into a made all victory for Native Falls if, as expected, he gets out quickly. He's drawn well enough in 5 of 7 and has run prominently of late, finishing 122 in his last three starts. His yard is going well at the moment, with 60% of the runners making the frame in the last fortnight and the booking of Silvestre de Sousa is a positive for me.
Trainer Alan Swinbank is 5/13 at this track this year so far and he'll probably expect another winner at 2/1 BOG tonight, especially as Native Falls looks more suited to the 1f drop back in trip on his preferred faster ground.
He'll not have it all his own way, though and Angel Flores poses a real danger. She finished 221 in three maidens over 6f before stepping up to 7f at Carlisle for her handicap debut last time out. She wasn't particularly suited by the testing nature of the Cumbrian track, but showed enough signs that she liked the quicker ground, but that the trip was just too much that day, especially as she hadn't run for seven months prior to that outing.
She's still improving and should come on for that run, the drop back in trip will also help her cause, as will a slight easing (-1lb) of her mark. It could be a very interesting battle here and if things fall right, the 11/4 BOG on offer about Angel Flores might look a little generous later.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Dangerous Age / Native Falls @ 7.25/1 (7/4 & 2/1 : Paddy Power & BetFred)
Dangerous Age / Angel Flores @ 9.31/1 (7/4 & 11/4 : Paddy Power & BetFred)
Verus Delicia / Native Falls @ 8.75/1 (9/4 & 2/1 : widely available)
Verus Delicia / Angel Flores @ 11.19/1 (9/4 & 11/4 : widely available)