Double Dutch, 15th May 2014
Normal frustrating service was resumed yesterday, as Green Bank's two length defeat was the difference between us hitting an excellent 43/1 double or not, as the case proved to be.
Green Bank ran really well and responded to pressure from 3 out, but was finally headed and beaten deep inside the last of the 26 furlongs he had been sent to run.
This rendered our second contest largely irrelevant, unless (like me) you like a small E/W bet on the outsider of my picks and Hold 'Em Cowboy was highly impressive.
He cantered around the course, took the lead when he felt like it and never once has to exert himself. He wasn't fancied in the market, though, drifting out from my 4/1 advice to an SP of 7/1, which in hindsight looks massive.
Wednesday's results were as follows:
Green Bank: 2nd at 9/2 (adv 7/2)
Dark Glacier: u/p at 9/2 (adv 9/2)
Hold 'Em Cowboy: won at 7/1 (adv 4/1)
Quel Elite: u/p at 11/2 (adv 4/1)
Results to date:
234 winning selections from 823 = 28.43%
75 winning bets in 216 days = 34.72%
P/L : +49.94pts (+11.67% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Two races from North of the Border today:
A five-runner contest, reduced to four at 9.30am with an odds-on favourite in the shape of Man With Van, who I'm going to oppose. What could possibly go wrong?
Knockanrawley beat the favourite last time out, admittedly by only three parts of a length and although this is a slight step up in trip and the favourite is now 7lbs better off than at Hexham 12 days, I'll still take him on. The bare result doesn't tell the whole story and the consistent Knockanrawley would actually have won by a much greater margin, but for "traffic problems" en route to the finish line and he was staying on the better of the two.
His career form reads 122P11, he's 211 on soft ground, 1/1 in chases, 2P1 at today's 3m trip, 12211 at this Class 4 level and 211 in races of six or less runners. In fact the only blot on his record is that "P" and that was in this years Grade 2 Albert Bartlett, so no disgrace there. I like him for this one and I'm getting on at 11/4 BOG with BetVictor.
My alternate here is Kilbree Kid, who really shouldn't be as long as 5/1 BOG for this contest in my opinion. I can only assume it's because this is his chasing debut and the presence of an odds on favourite making him so long.
He also has a decent set of stats to back him up, he's 211145 over hurdles, with those last two runs at Classes 3 & 2 respectively, so he's dropping down two levels to Class 4 today, where he is unbeaten in three runs. He was a course and distance winner here last September and has won both efforts in 5-runner races to date.
There might be some doubts regarding a first chase start, but he's a dual point to point winner and you tend not to win many of those if you can't jump and then pull away from the fences.
Hold 'Em Cowboy goes again today and whilst I wouldn't normally back a horse two days in a row, yesterday's win was so easy on the horse that it resembled a public schooling exercise.
He took his record to 4/7 on soft ground, his record here at Perth is now a win and a place from two starts and he has now won 3 and placed in 2 of his last eight runs. I fancy him to go in again today at 15/8 BOG.
I don't think this contest will be as straightforward as yesterday and Be My Deputy will probably give him a bit more to think about here. He has been placed in two of his three runs here at Perth in the past and has a record of 312 on soft ground, whilst four wins and four places from thirteen efforts around this trip is a decent return.
Be My Deputy has come down the weights of late and now runs at just 2lbs heavier than his last winning run and at 9/2 BOG offers a viable alternative should the back-to-back runs prove too much for Hold 'Em Cowboy.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Knockanrawley / Hold 'Em Cowboy @ 9.78/1 (11/4 & 15/8 : BetVictor)
Knockanrawley / Be My Deputy @ 19.63/1 (11/4 & 9/2 : BetVictor & Betfair Sports)
Kilbree Kid / Hold 'Em Cowboy @ 16.25/1 (5/1 & 15/8 : Boylesports & PP)
Kilbree Kid / Be My Deputy @ 32/1 (5/1 & 9/2 : Boylesports, PP, Coral & Stan James)