Double Dutch, 15th October 2014
It's just not been happening for DD in recent days, so Chris and I felt a change of chair might bring a change of luck. After yesterday's 1-3 we're down a few points on our yearly high, so much to address for yours truly.
Now seems like an ideal time to share with readers the strategic theory behind the Double Dutch service. What we're essentially looking for is a pair of uncompetitive races where two horses have a clear chance against the rest. By using Best Odds Guaranteed bookies, we have two chances to win each race, and two chances to get the benefit of a drift in price.
The ideal then is a winning double drift, which happens from time to time, and makes for a very tidy double indeed.
Tuesday's results were as follows:
Mercoeur: 3rd at 7/2 (adv 5/2)
Curragh Hall: u/p at 2/1 (adv 4/1)
Atab: 1st at 2/1 (adv 15/8)
Arcano Gold: 3rd at 11/4 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
373 winning selections from 1321 = 28.24%
120 winning bets in 344 days = 34.88%
P/L : +48.56pts (+7.06% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
A pair of top heavy races to go to war with then, starting in the...
A funny little five runner beginners' chase, this. One of them, Capture The Drama is 66/1 and that looks skinny; another is about two and a half stone inferior on hurdles form. The other trio all have some sort of case to be made, and a kink in them.
Let's start with the favourite, Un Beau Matin. He's had seventeen career starts, all on good to soft or softer, and most on heavy. Today's ground is currently good to firm, although rain is forecast. As it stands, there has to be a chance he's withdrawn, but if he runs he has the pick of the hurdle form and has always looked a chaser. Placed in a pair of Grade 2 hurdles earlier in the year, a repeat of that level would likely be enough.
Against him is a pair of talented horses, the first of which is The Job Is Right. Michael Hourigan's With Approval gelding was good enough to win a Grade 3 novice hurdle last season, and went on to run the Champion Hurdle favourite, Faugheen, to five lengths in another Grade 3 novice. After that, it went a bit 'Pete Tong' with back-to-back P's on his scorecard, including in the potato race (Albert Bartlett) at the Cheltenham Festival. One further trip to the well in April yielded nothing for a horse who looked well over the top by then and, freshened up by a 178 day break, The Job Is Right should offer a lot more today.
The fly in the ointment is Sizing Solution, a former hunter chaser. Only six, he has age and scope on his side, but his current rating of 111 gives him a stone and more to find with the nominated pair on their hurdles form - of course, that doesn't always translate to fences. He's been beaten into second on four of his five chase starts, and that's enough for me to bet it happens again.
A fair field of fillies line up for this maiden race over seven furlongs, but two stand out. The more exposed of the DD duo is John Gosden's Rock Kristal. This Fastnet Rock filly has had two runs, both on the Kempton beach, starting a with a five length third over this trip. That form has worked out really well, with six subsequent winners from the race and four more placed, from just fifteen runners. Indeed, the first, second, fourth, sixth and ninth have all won since.
Rock Kristal was then upped in trip to a mile and went down by a neck, having run out of steam in the last furlong. The drop back to seven looks right, and I think she'll win, though the trainer's form (only three wins from 32 runs in the past fortnight) is a worry. Trap 13 is not ideal either, but this lass should be able to tack across under William Buick.
Back-up is Roger Varian's once-raced Zari. She made her debut over course and distance three weeks ago, and went down by just a length to Comedy Queen with several more fancied runners behind. Sure to come on a step for that, she'll get plenty of support from the saddle given that the world's greatest is piloting. Just as well, because box ten is sub-optimal, though with eight horses either having their first start or following up a poor effort inside her, Moore should be able to get the position he wants without too much shenaniganing.
Godolphin newcomer, Ershaadaat, might be the biggest threat.
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
Un Beau Matin / Rock Kristal @ 5.24/1 (Evs & 85/40 : BetVictor)
Un Beau Matin / Zari @ 5.5/1 (Evs & 9/4 : BetVictor)
The Job Is Right / Rock Kristal @ 12.5/1 (7/2 & 2/1 : bet365)
The Job Is Right / Zari @ 13.63/1/1 (7/2 & 9/4 : Skybet, PP)