Double Dutch, 15th September 2013
I have to confess to being embarrassed by how bad yesterday's first tilt for me at the Double Dutch was. The conditions race was a little unlucky, short headed, but the Irish maiden was desperate. Despite the statistical evidence pointing strongly towards the top of the market in such races (77% won by one of the top three in the betting), this was contested by longer priced horses.
Anyway, onwards and downwards we hurtle...
Trial to date:
7 winning selections from 34 = 20.6%
1 winning doubles in 10 days
P/L : -13.75pts (-70% ROI)
As regular readers will know, this is a trial run and so far, it's not going terribly well. Unlike some services, we publish our numbers every day and never shy away from bottom line, in whatever light that shows us...
Let's crack on.
A good little mile and a quarter handicap, and one which looks loaded towards the top two in the betting, Croquembouche and Tuscan Fun. The former is a course winner, and a distance winner, and loves fast ground. He's up a few pounds for his last time out win, but on the flip side, he's clearly in form and looks highly likely to get his preferred easy lead in this small field.
If one is to come from the pack, it might well be Tuscan Fun. Roger Varian's lightly raced three year old has had just seven outings, with his only win coming in a good ground Class 4 mile and a quarter handicap, exactly the conditions he has today. True, he's struggled a little since but that might have been due to the cloud the Varian stable was under at the time and they're certainly not struggling now. He's got bottom weight here and may give the front-running Croque most to do.
The selections are around 3/1 respectively, and with luck will set us up for the...
The next race on the Bath card is a five furlong sprint handicap, in which Space Artist looks to have a fine chance of making it three wins in his last five starts. His only run at the track was a class and distance win, and he gives his best turf efforts on genuine good ground, which he'll also get today. He's only two pounds higher than when winning last time, and he seems best in single figure fields (411211).
The one I like if he's not up to this is Reqaaba. Now trained by Mr Sprinter, Robert Cowell, he's only had five starts in his life and already has top weight against these more experienced horses. He could well end up being different gravy to them and, if that's to be the case, he ought to be running well in this.
Indeed his win last time was his first run for Cowell, and first in a hood too. It was also his first attempt at the minimum trip, and he won going away. Progressive and under positive conditions, today could be another day for him.
They're around 3/1 the pair.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Croquembouche / Space Artist @ 20.65/1 with Stan James
Croquembouche / Reqaaba @ 21.5/1 with sportingbet
Tuscan Fun / Space Artist @ 15.24/1 BetVictor
Tuscan Fun / Reqaaba @ 15.24/1 BetVictor