Double Dutch, 15th September 2014
Pretty poor stuff on Saturday, I'm afraid.
Firstly I omitted the wrong one of three at Bath, as Smart Daisy K defied the rise in weight to win by a length and a quarter with our best placed runner, Random Success a further place and three parts of a length further back.
Whilst in Ireland, Tapestry was very disappointing and Rizeena was beaten by half a length, having been caught with 50 yards to run.
Not the best of days.
Saturday's results were as follows:
Random Success : 3rd at 9/4 (adv 11/4)
Shilla: u/p at 6/1 (adv 5/1)
Rizeena: 2nd at 7/4 (adv 2/1)
Tapestry: u/p at 9/4 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
347 winning selections from 1222 = 28.40%
114 winning bets in 318 days = 35.85%
P/L : +61.61pts (+9.66% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I'll be hoping for a change in fortunes this week, starting with these...
Anginola doesn't win very often, if truth be told, but she's usually there or thereabouts in better quality handicap races than this poor-looking seller. her last six runs have finished 343534, but the total margins of all those defeats is just 11 lengths, suggesting she just isn't quite good enough at the level she has been competing at. She drops back into a seller today, the grade at which she last won and runs off a mark 5lbs lower than that last win. Jockey Jenny Powell is riding well to, having notched a couple of winners last week.
Royal Mizar didn't race at all for 21 months between July 2012 and April of this year and it has taken him a while to get back to any kind of form resembling that of his debut season. He has, however, run well recently with two runner-up finishes at Bath, as he has dropped down the weight and switched stables. He ran off 49 last time out and remains on that mark, but does have the advantage of a 7lb claimer on board today, which should make him very competitive at the weights.
For Shia and Lula (7/2 BOG) has won three of his last five outings with a runner-up finish in one of his two defeats. He has already demonstrated a liking for the new Tapeta surface here at Dunstall Park, having won here over course and distance last time out, 11 days ago. he's only raised 2lbs for that win, which seems a little lenient to me. Eoin Walsh is in the saddle again, as he was here LTO and he is in good touch at present and also has a near 20% strike rate at this track.
They'll not have it all their own way though, for Sakash is a consistent performer, especially on the A/W. In the last year he has won four times and been placed four times from 12 runs, whilst his A/W record reads 2103122. He was last seen at Yarmouth three weeks ago, when he stayed on strongly to win by the best part of two and a half lengths and in truth won a bit cosily with plenty to spare.
He has a course and distance win to his name (2312 over C&D) and looks more than capable of defying a 6lb rise in weight. He's currently priced at 11/4 BOG with Betfair's Sportsbook if you fancy him.
4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:
Anginola / Sakash @ 12.13/1 (5/2 & 11/4 : Betfair Sportsbook)
Anginola / For Shia and Lula @ 14.75/1 (5/2 & 7/2 : generally)
Royal Mizar / Sakash @ 13.06/1 (11/4 & 11/4 : Betfair Sportsbook)
Royal Mizar / For Shia and Lula @ 15.88/1 (11/4 & 7/2 : generally)