Double Dutch, 16th April 2014
Tuesday went pretty much the same way as Monday did, I'm afraid. We had a well backed winner in race 1, where Geeaitch triumphed at a rather skinny 6/4 after we'd got on at 3/1 earlier in the day. He quickened readily to win quite cosily in the end, but On The Cusp was a disappointing 6th of the 7 runners, some 18 lengths off the pace.
Race 2 was once again our downfall, but approaching the penultimate fence, it appeared that we were on for a handy 17/1 double as Gores Island led by a couple of lengths with Speedy Bruere already well beaten. Unfortunately the leader met it all wrong and landed awkwardly, dumping both his rider and our double hopes in the process.
Tuesday's results were as follows:
Geeaitch: won at 6/4 (adv 3/1)
On The Cusp: u/p at 7/2 (adv 100/30)
Gores Island: fell at 5/2 (adv 7/2)
Speedy Bruere: 4th at 9/2 (adv 100/30)
Results to date:
212 winning selections from 735 = 28.84%
70 winning bets in 192 days = 36.46%
P/L : +64.91pts (+17.08% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I haven't exactly got into the groove since my return, something I'm looking to correct in the...
A decent looking Listed event with four of the six runners holding entries for the 2,000 Guineas, so it should be a good contest. Of those four, I'm going to side with the two unbeaten and least exposed runners: Shifting Power and Mushir who are both currently two from two.
Shifting Power won a Class 5 Maiden on debut last July and followed that up 16 days later with a win in a Class 4 Novice contest over today's trip on the July course here at Newmarket. He blitzed Treaty of Paris into second place by a good six lengths that day, a performance which was later put into context when the latter went on to land the Group 3 Acomb Stakes at York on his next start. That run is probably why Shifting Power is as short as 7/4 BOG for this one and a similar run will make him very hard to beat, but...
...I actually fancy Mushir to turn him over here and cause a bit of an upset. Mushir is also two from two and whilst this represents a step up in trip from 6f, but the way he landed the Listed Rockingham Stakes at York last time out suggests that he'll appreciate the extra. He swept from the very back of a 10-runner field that day to win by a head and looked to have plenty left in the tank. It'll be a tight contest, but Mushir would be my preferred option at 7/2 BOG (Stan James, SkyBet & Coral) .
The contrast between this race and the one above couldn't be greater. From a classy Listed Flat race to a very ordinary-looking chase that looks bereft of any real quality. There's little decent form on show from the runners in this one, but Turf Trivia probably has the best of it.
Turf Trivia did at least record a course and distance victory three starts ago and that familiarity alone might just be enough to swing this one. He'll probably not get a weaker race than this to improve his stats/confidence after losing his way a little of late. He was poor last time out after falling in his previous outing, but he's in familiar surroundings today (8 of his chases have been here at Sedgefield) and can be backed at 9/4 BOG with SkyBet to land this.
Of the others, there's not much to write home about, but chase debutant Shan Valley was at least consistent over hurdles and might be well treated for a first crack at the larger obstacles. His trainer Stuart Coltherd's handicap chasers are going really well at present with 7 winners from 27 this year alone with the 26% strike rate producing 26.7pts (+98.9% ROI) profit along the way.
Shan Valley has a win and four further places from his nine handicap starts and if he takes to the fences first time round, he might well have found a great opportunity to get off the mark at 7/2 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Shifting Power / Turf Trivia @ 7.94/1 (7/4 & 9/4 : SkyBet)
Shifting Power / Shan Valley @ 11.38/1 (7/4 & 7/2 : SkyBet)
Mushir / Turf Trivia @ 13.63/1 (7/2 & 9/4 : SkyBet)
Mushir / Shan Valley @ 19.25/1 (7/2 & 7/2 : SkyBet)