Double Dutch, 16th December 2015
Did I mention yesterday that this piece is becoming a bit like Groundhog Day?
We continued to rattle the crossbar yesterday with a winner, two runners-up and a third place to narrowly miss out on a much needed 26.5/1 double by just a neck.
Poulanassy beat the odds on favourite by a length and a quarter to kick things off in style for us as they pulled 14 lengths clear of the rest of the field at Catterick to give us a 9/2 winner and a 9.5/1 exacta setting us up nicely for Kempton...
...where, unfortunately Bennelong just couldn't quite reel in the leader and went down by just a neck with our other runner only another three parts of a length back in third. So, whilst things aren;t exactly going to plan, there's clearly not too much wrong with the actual picks and we seem to be banging on the door.
Hopefully it swings open today!
Tuesday's results were as follows:
Poulanassy : WON at 9/2 (adv 4/1)
Captain Bocelli : 2nd at 5/6 (adv 7/4)
The exacta paid £10.50 here to a £1 stake
Bennelong : 2nd at 4/1 (adv 7/2)
Tijuca : 3rd at 7/2 (adv 11/4)
Results to date:
754 winning selections from 2706 = 27.86%
236 winning bets in 701 days = 33.67%
P/L : +74.6pts (+5.32% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Six of these seven runners raced against each other here over course and distance last time out and the two I would have backed that day were Jayo Time and Sir Valentino and that's where I stand today.
As it happens, Jayo Time was badly hampered and ended up unseating his rider at the first fence as Kudu Country fell in front of him and left him with nowhere to go. Yet aside from that, the horse is in great form, winning three of five handicap chases (12161) before that incident. He's two from three over fences here at Ludlow, including a course and distance win and at 3/1 BOG, I expect him to go well again today, if keeping out of trouble.
Sir Valentino actually went on to win that race a fortnight ago and despite not jumping too fluently late on, ran on well to win by the best part of two lengths. His jumping only seemed to deteriorate once he looked to have the race won and perhaps he needs a bit of company/pressure to keep him going, which he should get today. He's won three of his last six races too, has two wins over course and distance and loves soft ground, giving him a good shout at 9/4 BOG.
The two form horses here are the 7/4 BOG favourite Exmoor Mist, who was a winner by 3 lengths at Leicester last time out just 13 days ago and the 5/2 BOG Allow Dallow who won by 2.5 lengths at Huntingdon 25 days ago despite it being his chasing debut and also his first run for 565 days! And with very little recent good form from their rivals, they're my two against the field, backed up by the fact that...
...male Class 3/4 handicap chasers running 11 to 150 days after a win in a handicap chase by 2 to 10 lengths last time out are 222 from 953 (23.3% SR) for 190.2pts (+20% ROI) profit with those returning just 11 to 25 days after that win going on to score again on 137 of 503 (27.2% SR) occasions, generating 195.9pts profit at an ROI of 39%.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...
Sir Valentino / Exmoor Mist @ 7.94/1 (9/4 & 7/4 : Hills & Betway)
Sir Valentino / Allow Dallow @ 10.38/1 (9/4 & 5/2 : Hills)
Jayo Time / Exmoor Mist @ 10/1 (3/1 & 7/4 : Bet365)
Jayo Time / Allow Dallow @ 17/1 (3/1 & 7/2 : Bet365)