Double Dutch, 16th June 2014
Another winner/second combo on Saturday, and time for a change of chair as I (Matt) step in for a few days to allow Chris to recharge. He's having no luck whatsoever, and after a time, that gets us all down. Hopefully I can find a pair of winners, though that is by no means a formality!
Saturday's results were as follows:
Ponfeigh: won at 15/8 (adv 2/1)
Maskoon: 4th at 9/4 (adv 11/4)
Banreenahreenkah: 5th at 3/1 (adv 3/1)
Ronya: 2nd at 4/1 (adv 11/2)
Results to date:
255 winning selections from 929 = 27.45%
80 winning bets in 242 days = 33.06%
P/L : +23.63pts (+4.9% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
A short field fair class handicap chase, and an improver against some relatively exposed types. The improver is Able Deputy, trained by Kim Bailey and ridden by AP McCoy. His best two runs have on good ground, and there's a chance this slightly quicker turf will suit him still further. It was a workmanlike effort at Fakenham last time, but the fact he could win round there gives plenty of hope that he'll go well at similarly tight - though less testing - Newton Abbot. A top price of 6/4 is unexciting, but he's a solid option with upside potential.
If he fails to run to form, the most likely one for me is The Nephew. A course and distance winner six weeks ago on his last start, we know he'll handle conditions, and the only reservation is the grade. Stepping up to Class 3 for the first time might prove beyond him, but then again there's no evidence to say it's not. He's had a nice rest since that last win and will come here a fresh horse. 11/2 seems perfectly fair.
In a race that looks short of pace, this pair are most likely to take it on, and benefit from any tactical shenanigans.
Another race with a solid progressive jolly and a logical exposed alternative. This time, Giantstepsahead is the upwardly mobile one. He's run well in higher class over this sort of trip and ground, and put a frustrating sequence of placed efforts behind him when making all and bolting up at Yarmouth over this trip and on this ground in this grade.
He has every chance of making all again tonight in what looks an otherwise paceless race, and a six pound rise in the weights is far from insurmountable. Again, 6/4 is not sexy, but it is playable, with both potential drift and another runner in the race in our corner.
That other runner is Teide Peak, with the considerable support of Oisin Murphy for the first time. That looks material, as does the fact that this fellow's best turf form has come on good to firm ground. The trip will be no problem - he's won over a mile and a half, and nine furlongs - and if ridden more handily than has often been the case, he might be the biggest danger to the favourite. That boy Murphy will know what to do tactically!
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Able Deputy / Giantstepsahead @ 4.95/1 (6/4 & 6/4 : Seanie Mac)
Able Deputy / Teide Peak @ 17/1 (5/4 & 7/1 : BetVictor)
The Nephew / Giantstepsahead @ 16.25/1 (13/2 & 13/10 : Betbright)
The Nephew / Teide Peak @ 51/1 (13/2 & 6/1 : BetVictor)