Double Dutch, 16th October 2014
It was a solid if unspectacular return to the chair for me yesterday, as we caught a winning double albeit without any odds drift. Still, as a friend of mine is fond of saying, "nobody ever went skint taking a profit". Indeed.
Uttoxeter looks really interesting, with the first SIX races all having some sort of 'two horse race' case to be made. In the circumstances, I've decided to avoid the meeting entirely, though I may play a 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 bet across the first five, to very small stakes and more for interest than anything.
Instead, I'm going to Punchy and Wolver, afternoon and evening, and I'm hoping for a bit of a slide in price as well as a pair of winners...
Wednesday's results were as follows:
Un Beau Matin: WON at 4/5 (adv Evs)
The Job Is Right: 3rd at 11/4 (adv 7/2)
Zari: WON at 9/4 (adv 9/4)
Rock Kristal: u/p at 9/4 (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
375 winning selections from 1325 = 28.3%
121 winning bets in 345 days = 35.07%
P/L : +49.81pts (+7.22% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Despite ten horses lining up, this has a very 'top of the market' feel to it, with both Princely Conn and Fill Your Hands taking support, to the exclusion of all others.
The former is flirting with sub-evens prices now, but that looks about right if he's able to convert his bumper form over hurdles. He was smart enough to win at the Galway Festival, where everyone wants a winner, and his jockey is in great form. Fast ground looks spot on, so if he can jump he'll probably win.
If he can't, or if he's a touch short on fitness, then Fill Your Hands looks the key beneficiary. Tony Martin's runner has had a spin over hurdles, and made a fair fist of it, finishing third to a couple of subsequent winners. He's well related and should improve with time.
Hard to make a case for much else, though Mount Corkish Girl could make up the podium at around 25/1.
Another very lop-sided book, which focuses almost exclusively on the top pair. Once-raced Silver Rainbow represents Charlie Hills, and is ridden by Kieren Fallon. Both have an excellent long-term record at the track, garnering the coveted C09+ symbol on the geegeez card (implying they have a better than 16% strike rate from greater than 25 rides).
Silver Rainbow ran in that excellent Kempton maiden, from which six winners have emerged, and this is her first start since. Drawn nicely in five - wide is a hindrance over seven at Wolves - she's got every chance of scoring.
His biggest rival looks to be the more exposed Ralph Beckett-trained Lear's Rock, a gelded son of Rock Of Gibraltar. This will be his sixth start, having finished second on his last two runs, and he may bid to make all. That should be a reasonable tactic if he can get an easy time on the front, and spare a little for the punishing home straight. Most ought to be burned off by then, in any case. His BHA mark of 74 would be good enough to win plenty of Wolver maidens, so it ought to see him right in the mix.
Main danger, if there is one, to this pair could be Bryan Smart's Emblaze, who has run a couple of fair races to date, and tries all weather for the first time.
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
Princely Conn / Silver Rainbow @ 3.3/1 (10/11 & 5/4 : Boylesports)
Princely Conn / Lear's Rock @ 4.5/1 (Evs & 7/4 : Coral)
Fill Your Hands / Silver Rainbow @ 4.35/1 (11/8 & 5/4 : Boylesports)
Fill Your Hands / Lear's Rock @ 5.25/1 (6/4 & 6/4 : Skybet)