Double Dutch, 16th October 2015
Well, I finally got a winner on the board yesterday after what seemed like an eternity since my last success, but the joy of landing a 5/1 winner at Carlisle was shortlived as Marmalad got nailed virtually on the line, meainng we missed out on a much-needed 16.28/1 double by a nose.
These things are sent to try us and they're certainly doing that!
Thursday's results were as follows:
Enchanted Garden : WON at 5/1 (adv 10/3)
By The Boardwalk : 3rd at 13/8 (adv 15/8)
Marmalad : 2nd at 6/4 (adv 15/8)
Steady Major : 4th at 11/4 (adv 9/4)
Results to date:
698 winning selections from 2502 = 27.90%
222 winning bets in 649 days = 34.21%
P/L : +100.02pts (+7.71% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Friday's picks are as follows...
This looks a pretty weak race to be honest and it could well pay to side with Nebula Storm, who returned to hurdling at Plumpton last month after spending six months sharpening up his ground speed on the Flat, where he made the frame on five on nine starts, including a win over 11.5f, so he's clearly got a turn of foot for when the pace picks up.
So, he hadn't seen a hurdle for over six months and he almost got round clear at Plumpton on his return, save for one mistake three out, which quite possibly cost him the race as he was only beaten by a length into second place whilst staying on well, suggesting a return to winning ways at 9/4 BOG wouldn't be too much of a surprise from Nebula Storm.
You can make cases for and against all of his rivals here, as they've all something to prove, but the 4yr old filly Maid of Tuscany is younger and less exposed than most and would have at least made the frame, but for falling at the last in her most recent effort over hurdles, 8 weeks ago.
She's had two runs over 10f since that day and although she hasn't troubled the record books in those runs, has shown some promise and will at least come here sharper and fitter for having had the outings. At 4yrs old, she still has plenty of scope to inprove/learn and it's this future possibility that makes Maid of Tuscany my second pick at 7/2 BOG.
Point of Woods acquitted himself well on his nursery debut last time out, finishing second off today's mark. He'll come on for the experience and with his jockey Patrick O'Donnell taking a very useful 5lbs off his back, he'd be the one to beat here at 2/1 BOG. Patrick rides the A/W well, winning 10 of 71 races (14.1% SR) so far (4/13 here) and is in good touch.
Trainer Ralph Beckett is a dab hand at switching runners from the turf to the A/W at the right time and this looks the ideal race for this son of Showcasing to notch a second win in four starts. Point of Woods was also considered good enough (although well beaten) to contest a Listed event a couple of months ago and there's nothing here of that ilk.
For my alternate, I'm going to side with the consistent Bochart, who currently trades at anything from 4/1 to 6/1, depending on which firm you choose, suggesting some think he has more chance than others. This son of Dubawi may well still be a maiden after seven efforts, but he tends to be there or thereabouts at the finish, often just losing out, as five top three finishes will testify.
He was beaten by less than a length and a half over 6f last time out at Lingfield and the easier nature of this track, a drop back to 5f and a 3lb easing in weight from his last run should all conspire to keep Bochart involved late on. His jockey, Kevin Stott also claims a further 3lbs and his decent record on thisd track should also help the cause this evening.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Nebula Storm / Point of Woods @ 8.75/1 (9/4 & 2/1 : generally)
Nebula Storm / Bochart @ 21.75/1 (9/4 & 6/1 : Paddy Power & Hills)
Maid of Tuscany / Point of Woods @ 12.50/1 (7/2 & 2/1 : generally)
Maid of Tuscany / Bochart @ 30.5/1 (7/2 & 6/1 : Hills & Paddy power)