Double Dutch, 17th April 2014
They say that things come in threes, well for the third successive day since my return, I managed to have one winning race and one loser and it's a little frustrating to say the least!
We got off the mark in a decent-looking Listed event where both our runners battled out a tight finish, with Shifting Power just beating Mushir by a head to also land a forecast/exacta at 11/2.
This set us up nicely for the chase at Sedgefield, but both our selections were soundly beaten into third and fourth place, leaving us to rue another losing day, I'm afraid.
Tuesday's results were as follows:
Shifting Power: won at 13/8 (adv 7/4)
Mushir: 2nd at 3/1 (adv 7/2)
(Forecast & Exacta both paid £6.50 here)
Turf Trivia: 3rd at 15/2 (adv 9/4)
Shan Valley: 4th at 11/4 (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
213 winning selections from 739 = 28.82%
70 winning bets in 193 days = 36.27%
P/L : +62.91pts (+16.47% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
We're tackling another Listed race today with the...
Where I fancy Baby Shine to get back to winning ways, providing a fall at the final fence last time out hasn't dented her confidence too much. She comes here 9lbs better off than when losing by less than 3 lengths to She Ranks Me, who still runs off a mark 6lbs lower than her hurdle rating and is, as such, potentially well in. Baby Shine was leading by over a length when falling at the last in a better quality Grade 2 race at Limerick a month ago and a similar run with a clear round should be more than enough here at a generally available 2/1 BOG.
Although She Ranks Me does look fairly well treated, she hasn't quite looked the part over fences and seem a little unreliable. I'm a little concerned that AP McCoy was able to get the best of her in her last two outings and he's not even on board today. No offence to Noel Fehily, but I think he'll also struggle with her too. Which brings me to Tempest River, a consistent if unspectacular performer.
Tempest River is a former course and distance placer, albeit over hurdles, having landing third place in the Listed OLBG.com Mares Handicap Hurdle at this meeting a year ago, beating Baby Shine by some 12.5 lengths, but she's 4lbs worse off here today. She seems to have taken to the larger obstacles pretty well: just three efforts to date, but she does look to be improving each time and might well be a danger to the selection at odds of 7/2 BOG.
Mick Appleby has got his horses firing at the moment (10/33 in the last month) and Expose comes here on the back of some decent form on the All-Weather this winter, winning two of his four starts since switching to the Appleby yard. He didn't get the run of the race last time pout, but this looks a much weaker affair and he could well be dropped in here at 7/2 BOG. I don't think the handicapper has quite got a hold of this one and we should get a decent performance if he gets the break.
I suspect many people will get on Waseem Faris as the day progresses which should erode his current odds of 7/2 BOG. He was only beaten by two lengths in a pipe-opener on Monday, where he was entitled to have needed the run on the back of a 175-day absence from the track and runs off the same mark today, just 2lbs higher than when he won at Brighton back in October. He tends to travel well and then stay on late in his races, so if he can be kept handy in the early stages, he has a good chance of snatching this in the final yards today.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Baby Shine / Expose @ 12.50/1 (2/1 & 7/2 : generally)
Baby Shine / Waseem Faris @ 12.50/1 (2/1 & 7/2 : BetVictor & Coral)
Tempest River / Expose @ 19.25/1 (7/2 & 7/2 : generally)
Tempest River / Waseem Faris @ 19.25/1 (7/2 & 7/2 : generally)