Double Dutch, 17th December 2014
A short head! That's all that separated us from a nice 12/1 double and what we actually got ie nada, zip, zero!
Doctor Parkes was given just a little bit too much work to do in his bid to overhaul the leader Fair Value, who made and got first run on the pack, opening up a decent lead. Our runner was gaining all the time late on, but he ran out of track and had to settle for narrow, gallant victory. It was a pulsating finish, but one that didn't eventually line our pockets.
And all this came about after Satellite Express did, indeed, prove to be the best of a bad bunch twenty minutes earlier at Southwell, heading Lazy Sioux inside the final furlong before stetching a lead out to two lengths at the post.
Both Satellite Express and Doctor Parkes had drifted a little in the market turning our fairly skinny morning 7.53/1 odds out t 12/1, but it was a case of close, but no cigar.
Tuesday's results were as follows:
Satellite Express: won at 9/4 (adv 13/8)
Knockamany Bends: 5th at 9/4 (adv 11/4)
Doctor Parkes: 2nd at 3/1 (adv 9/4)
Salvatore Fury: 4th at 7/4 (adv 3/1)
Results to date:
438 winning selections from 1522 = 28.78%
139 winning bets in 395 days = 35.19%
P/L : +85.61pts (+10.82% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
But the beauty of a daily service, is that you don't wait long for a chance of recouping your losses and this is how I intend to do this on Wednesday...
Greenlaw looked like he struggled to see out the 2m 6.5f on soft ground at Wetherby three weeks ago, but wasn't disgraced by being beaten into second place. He was, admittedly well beaten by 18 lengths, but lost a lot of ground when making a bad mistake when tiring at the second last. Nevertheless, he stayed on to take the runner-up spot and was good enough to have three other finishers 7L, 11L and 45L behind him. Better ground and a drop back in trip to 2m 2.5f is sure to help his cause here today and he's my most likely as the 9/4 BOG favourite.
The next three in the market all have chances and you could make arguments for and against all of them, but I'm going to side with the 5/1 BOG Winston Churchill who defied a 506-day absence to power home in the mud at Ffos Las (when isn't it muddy there?) over 2m 3.5f on heavy ground last time out. he made all that day, jumped well and stayed on to repel his nearest rival by 2.25 lengths. He's had almost four weeks to get over his exertions and is only raised 4lbs for that win, meaning he should at least be competitive. Conditions should prove a little less taxing here, too!
I liked Hurricane Alert for this one, but he was withdrawn this morning, so I'm going to do my usual tactic in these maidens for this blog. I'll take one with race experience and one without. Only two runners are making their debut today and of those, I'd expect Volunteer Point to show most. She's a half-sister to Meddling who has finished in the first three home in five of her eight starts on the A/W, winning twice over a mile and she's also a half-sister to Limetree Lady, a winner over 5f. She cost 32,000 Guineas as a yearling and this looks a fairly moderate event to start her career. Unfortunately the market has also recognised this and she's now best priced at around 7/4 BOG.
The one with experience that I fancy to challenge her most is the 2/1 BOG Rahmah, who has been knocking on the door and has run creditably in all five starts to date (33432). he was only touched off by a short head on his A/W debut At Wolverhampton 18 days ago, headed very late on in his first crack up at 7f. He drops back to 6f here today and if he takes to Kempton's surface as well as he did at Wolverhampton, it could be the day he sheds that maiden tag.
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
Greenlaw / Volunteer Point @ 8.14/1 (43/20 & 19/10 : Betbright)
Greenlaw / Rahmah @ 8.75/1 (9/4 & 2/1 : generally)
Winston Churchill / Volunteer Point @ 15.50/1 (5/1 & 7/4 : Stan James)
Winston Churchill / Rahmah @ 17/1 (5/1 & 2/1 : Betfred & Hills)