Double Dutch, 17th January 2014
A winner, a runner-up and two third places yesterday showed a good level of consistency but no doubles payout, I'm afraid.
Joanne One and Astigos both ran into the impressive Lamps who was untroubled by the conditions and won with a little to spare. Despite finishing 3rd, Astigos proved his worth as a value bet, being well backed from our advised 4/1 to an SP of just 2/1.
This meant that the following race was purely for pride and Lord of House justified my faith in him and he battled to hold on and win by just a neck at decent odds of 7/2
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Joanne One : 2nd at 7/4 (adv 13/8)
Astigos : 3rd at 2/1 (adv 4/1)
Lord of House : won at 7/2 (adv 3/1)
Rio de Sivola : 3rd at 6/4 (adv 9/4)
Results to date:
120 winning selections from 417 = 28.78%
38 winning doubles in 112 days = 33.93%
P/L : +12.44pts (+5.60% ROI)
Fridays are becoming synonymous with evening A/W racing, so we're taking in a couple of races from either side of the Irish Sea:
Crowdmania was my Stat of the Day selection on Monday and was narrowly beaten late on. He looked set to win, but got caught virtually on the line and went down by a short head. The drop back from a mile to todays 7f should suit his early speed and he come on for the fact that Monday's run was his first for 14 weeks. He gets to run off the same mark as Monday and if he runs today's race like he ran the first 7f last time out, we should be toasting a 5/4 BOG winner.
I was going to put Dutch Rifle up as an alternative, but she was withdrawn just as I was ready to send this piece to site, so I'm switching my sights to Spiritual Flame who has two wins and a place from her last four outings and although, she was last of the four home at Lingfield last time out, she was by no means disgraced, beaten by less than two lengths in a better standard of race than this and a similar performance now dropped in grade might well be enough for her grab this at 5/1 BOG.
Under Review is a consistent sort on the All-Weather with four wins and six places from 15 starts to date. He's won three times at this distance in the past and his record at Dundalk is 1 win and 4 places from 7 and has been dropped 2lbs back tot he mark from which he ran an excellent 2nd over course and distance to Antiquus who has won again since. There's not much for him to beat here and 2/1 BOG looks more than fair.
Of the challengers, Above The Law looks the best on stats, but was both disappointing and 3 lengths behind Gallena last Friday. Gallena is more than capable of bouncing back to form, but I'm going to side with Winslow Arizona on the basis that 9/2 BOG is a good price for him, if he handles a fairly large drop in trip.
He's no stranger to winning races, having won three from eleven to date and he has a record of 15413 on polytrack. It is a bit of a punt backing him over 6f when his three previous wins are at a mile (twice) and ten furlongs, but 9/2 BOG would be ample reward.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Crowdmania / Under Review @ 5.75/1 (generally 5/4 & 2/1)
Crowdmania / Winslow Arizona @ 11.38/1 (BetVictor 5/4 & 9/2)
Spiritual Flame / Under Review @ 16.25/1 (Stan James 5/1 & 15/8 )
Spiritual Flame / Winslow Arizona @ 29/1 (Stan James 5/1 & 4/1)