Double Dutch, 17th June 2015
Because of the returns you can achieve from doubling up with what look like short-priced runners, you don't need a huge strike rate to stay ahead of the game and this has been very well demonstrated here recently.
I'd endured something of a barren spell in the fortnight preceding Saturday's winning double and with another win yesterday, we're already as profitable as we've ever been. What a difference a couple of wins can make.
Sail And Return was a horse I really liked and I'd had a bet on it elsewhere too and despite making a real horlicks of the penultimate fence, stayed on strongly to win by three parts of a length. The only surprise to me about the win was the massive drift out to 6/1 from our advised 7/2 (a price I was happy with!).
Full marks also, to Conor Shoemark for sitting tight after the mistake! Our other runner at Stratford was Owen Glendower who also stayed on well to finish third.
It was then over to Thirsk, where a non-runner reduced the field to five and all bets were reduced by 15p in the pound. Our 5/2 BOG pick Emerahldz became a 17/8 shot, but this was still better than the 15/8 SP she was returned at after young Samantha Bell gave her a cracking ride to win by a length and a quarter.
Our other runner and well fancied (7/3 after R4 into 6/4 fav) Sea The Skies was a disappointment, finishing last of the five and beaten by just over five lengths.
All of which meant a 20.88/1 winning double after Rule 4 deductions and another timely reminder about using BOG bookies, as advised odds paid out at 13.06/1 and I certainly can't afford to leave half of my winnings on the table!
Tuesday's results were as follows:
Sail And Return : WON at 6/1 (adv 7/2)
Owen Glendower : 3rd at 9/2 (adv 4/1)
Emerahldz : WON at 15/8 (adv 5/2 = 17/8 after R4 )
Sea The Skies : 5th at 6/4 (adv 11/4 = 7/3 after R4)
Results to date:
599 winning selections from 2108 = 28.37%
189 winning bets in 546 days = 34.50%
P/L : +115.11pts (+10.55% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I'm looking for more of the same on Wednesday...
Highpower was a winner here a month ago over hurdles in first time cheekpieces which are worn again today and he looks to have been fast tracked to the bigger obstacles after just six runs spread over a 21-month period. That might make you think he's a little inexperienced to go chasing, but he is a half-brother to the very good Alberta's Run from the same yard.
He couldn't be in better hands in that respect and with his breeding in mind, I'd expect he'll fare better over fences than he did over timber and it wouldn't be too much of a surprise to see him Highpower win at the first time of asking at 5/2 BOG.
The main threat should come from the 11/4 BOG Urcalin, who by contrast has already had two unsuccessful cracks at chasing last winter, failing to complete on both occasions. It has to be said, though, that he wasn't in good from over hurdles approcahing the switch to chasing and with confidence low, that could well have been a factor.
He now comes here off the back of finishes of 112 in his last three outings, the latest being a very good second at Aintree at a higher grade than this over a longer trip. Stamina won't be the issue here today, but his jumping does need to improve, but you can guarantee he'll have been well schooled and on basis on current form, I'd expect much better from Urcalin today.
The consistent Tamayuz Magic sets the standard in a poor-looking contest this evening. He has run nine times in the last year, winning three times and finishing third a couple of times and was a winner here last summer. He was staying on well in a half-length defeat at Thirsk last time out over 1m, suggesting that he'll relish the step up to a mile and a half this evening, having already won two of three starts at 1m2f.
A quick look at the race conditions says he's never won on good ground, but with wins on good to firm, good to soft and heavy, I'd say that was more of an anomaly than a reliable stat. In fairness, this is a race that shouldn't take much winning and I'd fancy Tamayuz Magic to do just that at 9/4 BOG (Betway)
Whereas we can get 7/2 BOG from SkyBet about my backup selection In Vino Veritas, who in fairness, has hardly set the world on fire so far. A 19-race maiden (3 x hurdles, 16 x flat) wouldn't usually get the pulses racing, but this is probably the weakest race he has contested and now runs off a career-low mark of 62 which should make him more competitive tonight.
He was second (0.75L) at Hamilton last autumn over this trip off a mark of 63 and achieved the same at Newcastle in October also off 63. The further easing of his makr and the return to better ground will help him here and he's no stranger to the trip either. You'd not want to put your mortgae on In Vino Veritas, but he's a decent alternate to the main selection.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Highpower / Tamayuz Magic @ 11.19/1 (11/4 & 9/4 : SkyBet)
Highpower / In Vino Veritas @ 15.88/1 (11/4 & 7/2 : SkyBet)
Urcalin / Tamayuz Magic @ 11.19/1 (11/4 & 9/4 : SkyBet)
Urcalin / In Vino Veritas @ 15.88/1 (11/4 & 7/2 : SkyBet)