Double Dutch, 17th March 2014
Lá fhéile Pádraig sona dhaoibh!
We ended last week on a high, as Saturday's pair of races from Fontwell got us back to winning ways with an 8.75/1 double and helped us to reach a new high profit mark for the Double Dutch, which has now made over 55pts at an ROI of over 16.5% in the six months since Matt and I started the service as a bit of a trial thing!
The prices and resultant returns on Saturday weren't the best we've had, but as a well-known supermarket chain tell us "Every Little Counts".
Race 1 went exactly to plan, there was little to separate our pair of 2/1 runners and they finished within a nose of each other with the next horse a good 19 lengths away, giving us the added bonus/satisfaction of a 3.77/1 forecast to boot.
There was no 1-2 for us in the later race, but Benny The Swinger stayed on dourly to grab the race in the final half furlong, with our second pick also running a good race back in third.
Saturday's results were as follows:
Itoldyou: won at 7/4 (adv 2/1)
West Cork Flash: 2nd at 6/4 (adv 2/1)
Benny The Swinger: won at 15/8 (adv 5/2)
Morestead: 3rd at 7/2 (adv 3/1)
Results to date:
183 winning selections from 637 = 28.73%
62 winning bets in 168 days = 36.90%
P/L : +55.15pts (+16.61% ROI)
Monday is never the best racing, but as I often say, every race has a winner and we just need two! I hope to find them in the...
Maller Tree is the highest rated (133) of the five runners lining up for this Class 5 Claiming Hurdle and this represents a major step down in class for a horse who won at Class 3 as recently as New Years' Day. He has since run in Listed company and it's not much more than a year since he was a runner-up in a Grade 2 contest in Ireland, so it is a little surprising him to see him plying his trade here today.
He also has the benefit of the in-form Noel Fehily on his back, Noel has ridden nine winners from 36 in the last fortnight and if we discarded his disappointing 0/16 record at Cheltenham last week, those figures are 9/20 in non-Group standard racing, including a spectacular 374/1 treble at Uttoxeter on Saturday. His presence in the saddle today might just make the difference to a horse who has become somewhat of a weak finisher of late. He's certainly got the class to win here and if Noel can keep him up to his work, could be a decent bet at 11/4 BOG with Bet365.
If however, the old failings reappear, then I'm sure Lamps will take the opportunity to shine (sorry!). Currently best priced at 2/1 BOG, he comes here in good heart/form on the back of two wins and a place from his four starts so far this year. He strung out a 6-runner field at Stratford last Monday, when he won by 23 lengths and beat the third-placed horse by 39 lengths (4th was another 26l further back!) and although this is 1.5f longer than last week, he certainly had plenty in hand.
It's only 8 weeks since Lamps was a winner over 2m5f on heavy ground at Market Rasen at Class 3 level, beating a 7/4 McCoy-ridden favourite with one of the Venetia Williams' well-regarded runners back in third. He'll not be found lacking for stamina or quality today and this could turn out to be a decent contest at a lowly level.
Market opinion seems to be split about the chances of Manomine taking this one with prices ranging from as low as 3/1 BOG (Boylesports) right up to the 15/2 BOG available at SkyBet. What is indisputable is that he comes here on the back of a good performance at Lingfield, when finishing second in his first outing for over six months. he was only beaten by a head by Munsarim, who went on to win again three days ago, whilst Arabian Heights, who was 5th that day (a length behind Manomine) , ran out a convincing winner here at Kempton five days ago.
If the form holds out and Manomine comes on for the run, as he's entitled to, then 7/1 looks big about him here and I'll probably have an E/W side bet too.
The one I fear the most in Aldeburgh, who might just have a bit more in his locker to outstay Manomine over the extended trip. He didn't show much in bumpers or hurdles races last year, but always completed the races, ensuring that stamina won't be an issue. He has performed better in his last four outings since a switch to A/W racing, running progressively better each time and stepping in trip along the way.
His best A/W run came last time out at Lingfield when Whitby Jet beat him by just a length and a quarter over 10 furlongs and he still looked like he needed further. Today is another 1.5f more than LTO and could be decisive in his quest for that first A/W win and Aldeburgh can be backed at 3/1 BOG here.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Lamps / Aldeburgh @ 11/1 (2/1 & 3/1 : BetFred & Coral)
Lamps / Manomine @ 23.44/1 (15/8 & 15/2 : SkyBet)
Maller Tree / Aldeburgh @ 14/1 (11/4 & 3/1 : Bet365)
Maller Tree / Manomine @ 29/1 (11/4 & 7/1 : Bet365)