Double Dutch, 17th March 2015
It was a quickfire double from back to back races on Monday that was a very pleasant start to our week. Throw the added bonus of a 6.7/1 exacta from race 1 and it was certainly a decent day for us.
Take The Crown led Money For Nothing home by three quarters of a length at Southwell and then fifteen minutes later, our attentions turned to Taunton, where the morning favourite Maverik had drifted out to 11/4 come race time.
He proved the market right, only beating one of his eight rivals home on the way to a 41 length defeat, but thankfully it was Perspicace who was the winner, despite also drifting out to 100/30 from our advised 11/4 BOG.
All of which meant we came away from the melee with a handy double at 14.17/1 to take our bottom line back beyond 120pts.
Monday's results were as follows:
Take The Crown : WON at 13/8 (adv 5/2)
Money For Nothing : 2nd at 3/1 (adv 9/4)
Perspicace : WON at 10/3 (adv 11/4)
Maverik : u/p at 11/4 (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
518 winning selections from 1810 = 28.57%
163 winning bets in 469 days = 34.69%
P/L : +121.67pts (+12.65% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
No time to rest on Monday's laurels, there's more winners to find!
Where the obvious starting point is the 7/4 BOG favourite Harwoods Star, who comes here in great form and looking a different horse since dropped to the minimum trip, winning here over course and distance on his last/only two visits and after being 0/16 and ineffective at a mile and beyond for Amanda Perrett, he's has finished 1731 for new trainer Stuart Williams, who excels in A/W handicap contests.
Andrea Atzeni was in the saddle on Harwoods Star for the first time last time out and he's back aiming to repeat their half length victory over course and distance against the re-opposing Pabusar who needs to be considered/respected now meeting on better terms. Pabusar was staying on well in that contest and was only headed deep inside the final furlong, as tends to happen in these sprints.
He is, however, 2lbs better off today than he was last time and for only half a length to make up that could be decisive. My only quibble about Pabusar is that he's too often a willing bridesmaid, flattering to deceive and generally finding one too good for him late on. I would expect that to happen again here, but if the favourite doesn't fire or doesn't get out, then Pabusar has to be the next in line at a reasonably attractive 7/2 BOG.
There's probably not a great deal to choose between Candide and Midnight Request here and if one of the two wasn't running, I'd be backing the other to win! As it stands, they both run, which is great for Double Dutch purposes as it not only gives me two bites of the cherry, but the presence of them both keeps the odds available at a realistic level.
Candide (7/2 BOG) is lightly raced and runs for just the fifth time today. He got off the mark in his third and final effort over hurdles with a narrow (1L) win over 3m2f at Huntingdon on Boxing Day, where the trip possibly stretched him as far as it could. He has since ran twice and finished second twice over fences over today's 3m trip on heavy ground and was only beaten by half a length last time out at Ffos Las.
The going is a little easier today and the cheekpieces are applied in a bid to stop him wandering about late on, like he did in his last race and if he van be kept straight, Candide has a great chance of a first chase win today, but he'll have to beat Midnight Request to do so. Regular readers of my "work" here on Geegeez and on Stat Picks will know that Midnight Legend is a sire I follow, as is trainer Nigel Hawke in handicap contests.
They combine here today with Midnight Request, who has also made a promising start to life over fences finishing third on debut at Carlisle 12 days ago, despite a couple of jumping errors and getting out paced late on. He'll come on for havong had the experiences of fences and the step up in trip should help with the pace issue. he has some form over this trip and acts well on soft and heavy ground and looks a good bet to me at 3/1 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Harwoods Star / Midnight Request @ 10/1 (7/4 & 3/1 : Stan James)
Harwoods Star / Candide @ 11.38/1 (7/4 & 7/2 : Boylesports)
Pabusar / Midnight Request @ 17/1 (7/2 & 3/1 : Stan James)
Pabusar / Candide @ 19.25/1 (7/2 & 7/2 : Hills)