Double Dutch, 17th May 2014
I was actually very confident yesterday about finally breaking the long run of near misses I'd endured of late. It's highly unlikely that I could have been more wrong.
All four runners failed to shine, failed to place and failed to even mount any kind of challenge on a day best forgotten. Despite the fairly lengthy run of days without a winning double, I've been happy with my selections and results have shown that I have been really close to cracking it, but yesterday was a setback,
Friday's results were as follows:
Velox: u/p at 7/2 (adv 5/1)
Gone Dutch: u/p at 9/4 (adv 3/1)
Special Meaning: u/p at 7/2 (adv 7/2)
Bolingbroke: u/p at 5/2 (adv 9/2)
Results to date:
235 winning selections from 831 = 28.28%
75 winning bets in 218 days = 34.40%
P/L : +45.94pts (+10.63% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Last chance for some redemption this week, starting with the:
Where Hero de Villeneuve is priced at 2/1 BOG to complete back to back Course and Distance victories, after winning on his UK debut a fortnight ago. he stayed on well that day and kicked for home, winning by a good 5 lengths and still going away at the finish. He's up 7lbs for that win, but that doesn't seem too excessive when you consider the manner of his victory and the fact that he's not really up against much here today.
It could well be argued that there are question marks about all eight of his rivals, either via a lack of form or being poorly handicapped and the main challenge, should one come, is likely to be in the shape of O'Callaghan Strand, who at least tasted some success in the past.
O'Callaghan Strand has won over this trip and is now back down to the same level as his last winning mark, when victorious at Ludlow some 16 months ago. It's a big if, but if he can reproduce some of his form from last year and keep it together, there's every chance he might just be there or thereabouts at 5/1 BOG today. A major positive for me is the booking of AP McCoy for this one, as you just know he'll be doing everything he can to drive this one home, if he's got a chance.
It's almost unbelievable that Jaja de Jau is still a maiden after 10 NH starts, but her form has been improving of late and her record over Course and Distance is promising, having finished second on both occasions within a length and a half of the winner. She was last seen seven weeks ago when finishing second here over course and distance to a horse who then went on to win again, before stepping up two grades to compete at Cheltenham in April.
With Rachael Green's 3lb claim taken into consideration, our selection is effectively a pound lower than her last outing and that could well be the difference between another narrow defeat and finally winning at 3/1 BOG.
I'd expect the biggest threats to lie at the bottom of the handicap, where both Prince Freddie and Midnight Thomas lurk. In truth, these two are much like the rest of this field in that they've no decent recent form to call on, but both have shown some spark of late and are well weighted today. Of the two, I prefer Midnight Thomas, who showed some promise last month at Taunton. he weakened late on, admittedly, but it was his first run in over six months and he's expected/entitled to come on for that run.
He runs off the same mark as last time out and the slightly shorter trip should help with any fitness issues. He travelled well and jumped well until fading towards the end of the contest last time out and if he can be kept going today, he could land a surprise at a decent price of 8/1 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Hero de Villeneuve / Jaja de Jau @ 11/1 (2/1 & 3/1 : SkyBet)
Hero de Villeneuve / Midnight Thomas @ 24.50/1 (2/1 & 15/2 : BetVictor)
O'Callaghan Strand / Jaja de Jau @ 21/1 (9/2 & 3/1 : Stan James)
O'Callaghan Strand / Midnight Thomas @ 41.50/1 (4/1 & 15/2 : Bet365 & BetVictor)