Double Dutch, 17th November 2014
We recorded back to back doubles on Saturday to continue what has been a decent run of results here at DD.
It was, however, a strange day, but we're not complaining at the outcome. I nominated a pair of eventual winners, both priced (fairly, in my opinion!) at 9/4 and I would have been happy with the expected 9.56/1 return and both What A Good Night and Last Shadow ran like horses at the top of the market, both eventually pretty comfortable winners by 4 and 6 lengths respectively.
Now, here's the strange bit. Nobody wanted to back our runners and they drifted like the proverbial barge in the 4 or so hours between my posting and the race times. So much so, that we ended up with two winners at 5/1 and 6/1 respectively for a massive 41/1 double on the day. Like I said, I wasn't complaining, but I was bemused!
Saturday's results were as follows:
What A Good Night: won at 5/1 (adv 9/4)
Shouldavboughtgold: u/p at 13/8 (adv 11/4)
Last Shadow: won at 6/1 (adv 9/4)
Nafaath: BD at 5/2 (adv 11/4)
Results to date:
410 winning selections from 1423 = 28.81%
132 winning bets in 370 days = 35.68%
P/L : +82.58pts (+11.17% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Mondays are invariably tricky, but I'm hopeful of keeping the ball rolling with...
08U in three attempts over hurdles isn't the most reassuring form to hang your hopes on, but I feel Miracle Cure is far better than those figures suggest and should show much more now handicapping. Prior to those three runs, he was a pretty smart runner on the Flat in Ireland, competing off a mark as high as 96 and competing in Listed company as recently as June 2013. He has been eased along since with then with just three runs to his name, the latest of which was the "U" at Stratford three weeks ago.
He was running off the back of a 21-week break that day and tired towards the end, leading to the error that cost him any chance when falling at the last. Aidan Coleman takes over in the saddle today and I expect Miracle Cure to come on for the run, I expect Aidan to get a bot more out of him and he's not onerously treated off 100 for his handicap debut. He'll have been well schooled for this and both jockey, trainer and the jockey/trainer combo have good records here at Leicester and can help themselves to a 4/1 BOG (Betfred) winner if all goes to plan.
Those plans, however, will require a substandard run from my preferred choice Mystery Drama, who is a former course and distance winner, having landing the juvenile hurdle on this card last year on his hurdling debut. He has been running on the flat and over hurdles since and although he hasn't won a hurdle race since that debut victory, has been running pretty well. He's 232U since then and there's little to draw from his last outing, as that ended at the 1st hurdle! One of his runner-up finishes was in a Listed race at Aintree, where he was 8 lengths behind subsequent grade 3 winner Gitane du Berlais.
He was a further 8 lengths clear of the 3rd placed horse, Poetic Verse, that day and she has gone on to win three times since then, at Classes 5, 4 and then 2, so if the form holds out and Mystery Drama runs to his ability, he looks the more likely winner here today and he can currently be backed at 7/2 BOG with Boylesports.
Suzy Smith has a good record here at Plumpton, both recently and more long term and she'll fancy her chances of another win with the 2/1 BOG Little Boy Boru, who was a good winner for her just 9 days ago at Sandown. That was just this horse's second run for the yard and his first career win in 13 attempts overall. He'll relish the conditions here today, with his best runs coming in the mud and in this amateur riders' contest, has one of the better available jockeys on his back.
The interesting one amongst his rivals is the French import Virtuose du Chenet representing the in-form and very shrewd Warren Greatrex, who is also able to call upon the services of one the better jockeys in this sphere today. His yard is in really good form at present and he has an excellent record with horses making their yard debut for him.
Warren also boasts really good figures here at Plumpton and introduces the 12/5 BOG (Betbright) Virtuose du Chenet to the UK in conditions that aren't totally alien to the runner, who has already won on very soft ground at Nantes in France in a reasonable standard of race and although he's a bit of an unknown quantity, I'm sure this race has been carefully selected and he'll have been very well prepared for he challenge.
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
Mystery Drama / Little Boy Boru @ 12.50/1 (7/2 & 2/1 : Boylesports)
Mystery Drama / Virtuose du Chenet @ 12.50/1 (7/2 & 2/1 : Boylesports)
Miracle Cure / Little Boy Boru @ 14/1 (4/1 & 2/1 : Betfred)
Miracle Cure / Virtuose du Chenet @ 16/1 (4/1 & 12/5 : Betbright)