Double Dutch, 17th November 2015
Monday's results were as follows:
Double Chocolate : 2nd at 6/4 (adv 9/4)
Playing The Field : PU at 7/2 (adv 7/2)
The Geegeez Geegee : WON at 7/2 (adv 9/2)
Verano : 3rd at 4/1 (adv 4/1)
Results to date:
730 winning selections from 2608 = 27.99%
230 winning bets in 676 days = 34.02%
P/L : +98.63pts (+7.30% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
These are Tuesday's selected races...
Mustmeetalady might well have been beaten by almost 10 lengths at Carlisle last time out (16 days ago), but in her defence, she had stepped up two classes to run there and now has to be seen as dangerous dropping back to Class 4 hurdling, where her record reads 221, after defeats by a head at Uttoxeter and 4 lengths at Worcester, before breaking her duck four weeks ago at Wetherby in a similar standard of contest to this one.
She's 6lbs higher than that win and is asked to run an extra half mile, but she has run well over this 3m trip in the past, when going down by a head at Uttoxeter on her hurdling debut on soft ground, so I'm not anticipating too much trouble with race conditions and a repeat of her run from two starts ago could be enough to put Mustmeetalady back in the winners' enclosure at 7/4 BOG today.
She won't, of course, have it all her own way, especially with the presence of Amidon amongst her rivals. I'm happy to ignore his latest run, which he clearly needed after 199 days off the track and was over an inadequately short trip, where he was inevitably outpaced and pretty well beaten. It was a very useful pipe opener, though and will enable him to run a true race here today.
On paper/last season's form, Amidon should really be shorter than 2/1 BOG, he stays the trip, the ground will be fine for him and he was running in far better company than this last season. Jockey and trainer (Aspell & Wadham) are 7 from 22 together here at Southwell since 2010 and they'll be very hopeful of improving those figures today.
Oscar Jane comes here in the form of her life, having finished 211 in her last three starts despite moving from 2m to 3m in trip and from a mark of 74 to 84 in those three runs. Narrowly beaten when headed late on over 2m at Plumpton four weeks ago, she was a 6L winner over 2m5f at Towcester and then again by half a length at Taunton over 3m a week later.
She now runs again just five days after that win, but she does run better when kept busy and she has started to build up a good relationship with jockey Brendan Powell (on board last two runs/wins) and in what looks a weaker contest back amongst her own sex than last week, I'd expect another display of bold front running from Oscar Jane at 9/4 BOG and if allowed to dominate, might prove difficult to catch.
The one likeliest to catch her should be 2/1 BOG shot Shaky Gift, who was third last time out, in that penultimate run/win of Oscar Jane at Towcester 12 days ago. Shaky Gift is still unexposed after just three starts, finished third on both efforts over hurdles.
She was admittedly almost 9 lengths behind the winner that day at Towcester, but she now meets her victor some 17lbs better off and that should really enable her to close that gap and make this more of a contest.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows
Mustmeetalady / Shaky Gift @ 7.25/1 (7/4 & 2/1 : BetVictor & Paddy Power)
Mustmeetalady / Oscar Jane @ 7.94/1 (7/4 & 9/4 : Bet365 & Stan James)
Amidon / Shaky Gift @ 8/1 (2/1 & 2/1 : Paddy Power)
Amidon / Oscar Jane @ 8/1 (2/1 & 2/1 : Boylesports & Ladbrokes)